Putin seeks a ‘breather’ before resuming Russia’s colonial mission – Estonian intelligence

“As I write these words, it remains uncertain whether the coming year will mark the end of a decade of Russian aggression against Ukraine and what form that conclusion might take. It appears that Putin sees changes in the international situation as an opportunity for a temporary pause. Such a break would be beneficial for a war criminal to consolidate gains, regroup, and then resume Russia’s colonial mission,” Rosin stated.

He stressed that Russia should not dictate the terms for ending the conflict and warned that there is no reason to believe Putin has abandoned his ambitions, including his demand to roll back NATO’s military presence to its 1997 borders.

Rosin added that while a direct Russian military attack on Estonia in 2025 remains unlikely, Moscow continues to pursue a hostile policy toward the country and maintains its confrontation with the West.

“Despite massive losses, Russia’s armed forces are growing, learning from the war, and rapidly developing technologies such as drones. This increases the overall threat level for NATO,” he said.

Rosin also warned that in 2025, Russia may escalate its sabotage campaign across Europe in an attempt to undermine support for Ukraine. However, he believes the Kremlin fails to realize that such actions, which could put lives at risk, only reinforce its image as an aggressor and strengthen Western unity rather than achieve the opposite.

Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine

On Feb. 1, Keith Kellogg claimed in an interview to FoxNews that US President Donald Trump had a “credible plan” to end Russia’s war against Ukraine and initiate peace talks.

On Feb. 5, Bloomberg reported, citing sources, that Kellogg might present Trump’s plan for resolving Russia’s war at the Munich Security Conference.

According to the report, the plan suggests freezing hostilities and leaving Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories in a state of limbo. It also allegedly includes security guarantees for Ukraine.

On Feb. 9, Trump told The New York Post that he had spoken by phone with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. The US president stated that he attempted to negotiate an end to the war against Ukraine. Putin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, told Russian media that he could neither confirm nor deny Trump's statement.

That same day, Trump claimed he had a specific plan to end the war. He also announced a proposed $500 million deal with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and gas in exchange for security guarantees in any potential peace settlement. However, that sum was later raised to $500 billion.

Earlier, The Telegraph, citing sources, reported that Trump’s administration had paused the development of a peace plan until it could negotiate with NATO allies.

On Feb. 10, news outlet Semafor reported that Kellogg had told U.S. allies during recent meetings that he was preparing various options for ending the Russo-Ukrainian war to present to Trump.