ISW: Kremlin fakes Ukraine defeat to push West into peace on Russia’s terms

Analysts say the Kremlin aims to force Ukraine into capitulation by convincing it — and its Western partners — that Russia is winning and that further resistance is futile. In reality, they argue, Moscow is trying to secure concessions it cannot achieve by force.

The ISW cited a Russian military blogger connected to the Kremlin who noted that after Putin’s Nov. 27 press conference, pro-government media launched a wave of disinformation about Ukraine’s supposed battlefield collapse.

Russian propagandists have claimed that Ukrainian troops are deserting en masse and surrendering, “leaving large areas unprotected,” while Russian forces are allegedly on the verge of entering Kyiv. They’ve also claimed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already been crushed and now only need to be “finished off.”

According to the blogger, Russia’s state media falsified battlefield gains, exaggerated Putin’s remarks, and even used artificial intelligence to fabricate videos showing Ukrainian soldiers allegedly surrendering. The goal, he said, is to create the illusion that the Russian military is about to break through Ukrainian lines, destroy Ukraine’s most capable units, and significantly degrade the Armed Forces.

By doing so, the Kremlin hopes to pressure Ukraine and the West into negotiating on Russia’s terms before the situation “gets even worse” — a narrative ISW analysts say is designed to sow panic and erode resolve.

However, the same Russian military blogger debunked the core of that narrative. He confirmed that the front line is holding, that Russia remains far from victory, and that recent tactical advances have come at the cost of high personnel and equipment losses.

He noted that both Ukrainian and Russian forces are locked in positional warfare along most of the front, with Ukraine continuing counteroffensive operations wherever possible, according to publicly available battlefield information. Ukrainian troops are reportedly defending Kharkiv Oblast, including near Vovchansk, and holding the line in the Kupyansk and Borova directions.

His assessment contradicts Putin’s Nov. 27 claims that Russia had fully captured Kupyansk, controls most of Vovchansk, and that Ukrainian forces are unable to hold positions near the Oskil River.

The blogger clarified that Ukrainian units sometimes withdraw from certain tactical positions, but this doesn’t mean they’re abandoning entire defensive lines. Such withdrawals, he said, are deliberate decisions made by commanders to reinforce other sectors or avoid encirclement — standard battlefield practice also used by Russian troops.

The ISW concluded that while conditions on specific parts of the front — particularly near Pokrovsk and Huliaipole — are indeed “serious,” Putin’s statements and Kremlin-controlled media reports are exaggerated and don’t match the battlefield reality.

“Notably, the Kremlin’s distortion of on-the-ground events was so far removed from reality that a well-known pro-war Russian military blogger felt compelled to issue his own rebuttal,” the analysts said.