Putin and Gerasimov claim new gains in Ukraine; DeepState and ISW data contradict them

Their statements contradict data from the Ukrainian General Staff and independent analysts, and drew criticism even from pro-war Russian "Z bloggers.”

According to the Russian state news agencies TASS and RIA Novosti, Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces had captured Dobropillia and Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka in Donetsk Oblast.

According to the DeepState monitoring project, both towns are under Ukrainian control.

Putin said that since the start of the year, Russian forces have captured about 6,500 square kilometers (about 2,500 square miles) of territory and 310 settlements. He claimed only about 10% of Donetsk Oblast remains under Ukrainian control.

Putin's statements contradict calculations by independent analysts. According to DeepState, Russian forces occupy about 21,300 square kilometers (about 8,200 square miles) of Donetsk Oblast, roughly 80% of its territory. Ukraine controls about 20%, twice what Putin claimed.

The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also calculated that, as of Oct. 1, Ukraine controls 5,382 square kilometers (about 2,100 square miles) of Donetsk Oblast, also about 20% of its territory. Over the previous year, the Russian army captured only 630 square kilometers (about 240 square miles), ISW said.

In Zaporizhzhya Oblast, according to DeepState, 65.4% of the territory is under Russian occupation, not 83.5% as Putin alleged.

ISW analysts believe the Ukrainian counteroffensive near Lyman, known as Operation Vivaldi, disrupted Russian plans to encircle the "fortress belt," which includes Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka.

According to corps commander Brig. Gen. Andriy Biletskyi, Operation Vivaldi liberated 277 square kilometers (about 107 square miles) of Ukrainian territory and freed nine settlements. Seven more were returned to full Ukrainian control.

The claims prompted a wave of outrage among Z bloggers. Some published them but declined to comment, so as not to publicly refute them.

The Z channel Voyenny Osvedomitel (“Military Informant”) wrote that "there is simply no point in picking all this apart."

Only the far-right Z blogger Alex Parker Returns, who lives outside Russia, allowed himself to condemn the statements by what he called a "dictator" and a "drunken voivode." "Yes, Pipa was sold yet another Sviatohirsk and Kupyansk. It's some kind of disgrace! The Russian Armed Forces are 5 km from the southern outskirts of Zaporizhzhya, said the drunken voivode Gerasim. I wonder whether he can be held accountable for spreading fakes about the Russian Armed Forces?" the blogger said.

According to DeepState, the distance from the front line to the outskirts of Zaporizhzhya is about 20 kilometers (about 12 miles).

On Sept. 9, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said Russian army losses since the start of the full-scale invasion had exceeded 1.5 million killed and wounded. It is the largest loss for Russia in a single war since World War II.