Ukrainians shift to realism in state evaluation, says leading sociologist

“Before the war, the assessment of the state in Ukraine could be called strictly realistic. However, in 2022, there was a state of euphoria, especially during our successes on the fronts, when the effectiveness of the country was unexpectedly assessed very high at 53.7% in May 2022,” he said, calling it a period of “unrealistic optimism” and “first shock enthusiasm.”

"At that time, there were no problems with mobilization; volunteers were lining up. People even began to assess the economic situation in the country higher than in 2021, despite 30% of the economy being destroyed. These figures reflected the general national upsurge rather than the economy or state. It was a period of accelerated formation of a political nation, and the world’s growing respect for Ukraine boosted the self-respect of its people, making all assessments more optimistic," Holovakha explained.

According to him, 2023 became a year of moderate optimism, followed by a “return to harsh realism” in 2024.

“People have given the state a score, and these scores need to be carefully studied and considered by the authorities. People don't want to break their contract: we give you the opportunity to run the country, and you have to be effective. While there is still an agreement between the people and the authorities for effective governance, criticism is now included in the evaluation, and sociologists are recording it. This is a reminder to the authorities that not every policy will be evaluated euphorically," Holovakha said.

Surveys conducted by the Institute of Sociology in November 2021 showed that 44.2% of Ukrainians believed that the central government was barely coping with its responsibilities. This figure dropped to 3.8% in May 2022 but gradually increased to 32.9% in June 2024.

Similarly, the percentage of those who believed that the central government was effectively managing its responsibilities was only 5.2% in November 2021, reached 53.7% in May 2022, and dropped back to 7.3% in June 2024.