Cash transfers to Ukraine decline by 6.9% amid fears of permanent demographic loss

The $273 million decrease represents a slower pace of decline compared to 2025, when remittance volumes plummeted by 19.5% year-over-year.

Hetmantsev noted significant structural shifts in the composition of cross-border transfers:

Temporary Labor Earnings: Inflows from the wages of Ukrainians working abroad on temporary contracts fell by 21.3%.

Private Transfers: Direct support sent to families from abroad increased by 13.3%, now accounting for slightly more than half of all private transfers.

"This dynamic may indicate that Ukrainians abroad continue to support their loved ones in Ukraine, but less money tied directly to temporary seasonal earnings is coming in. Furthermore, the methods used to transfer money are shifting," Hetmantsev wrote.

Official transfer volumes through banks, international payment systems, and postal offices remained virtually flat, while informal cash inflows dropped by 17.6%. As a result, the share of official transfer channels rose to 66.2% — driven by a contraction in informal channels rather than growth in formal transfers.

"Among the potential causes of this trend are a decline in seasonal labor migration and the growing reunification of families abroad. When a person settles in another country with their family rather than leaving for a few months of seasonal work, the majority of their income remains there," the lawmaker explained.

"This highlights a far more critical problem than the decline in remittances alone. We risk losing our people permanently," Hetmantsev concluded.

According to survey data cited earlier by Hetmantsev, the share of Ukrainians abroad planning to return home has fallen from 68% to 53% over the past year, while the share of those who do not plan to return has doubled from 17% to 34%.