The report says the situation in the Black Sea worsened sharply in July, when Russian forces attacked more than 30 merchant ships. Two vessels were struck close to Romania’s border.
The escalation reached a critical point July 24-26, when Romanian air forces over three days shot down three Russian kamikaze drones that had entered Romanian airspace. One of the drones flew about 200 kilometers (125 miles) into Romania before being downed.
New Strategy Center says Moscow’s next step could be coordinated attacks using jet-powered drones aimed at the Reni–Galati area. The center warns such strikes would test the capacity and speed of Romania’s air defenses by launching coordinated waves of drones from multiple directions, and that the Galati–Reni corridor is especially vulnerable because of the very limited time available to intercept incoming craft.
Analysts add the threat is growing as Russia deploys a new generation of Geran-5 drones with jet engines that can reach speeds up to 650 kilometers per hour\.
The report also says Russia could carry out false flag operations, using previously captured and refurbished Ukrainian drones to block the Danube River transport corridor. Attacks on vessels and ports near Odesa have effectively blocked maritime grain exports from Ukraine, and the Danube has fallen to lowest levels since 1996. Lower water levels force barges to reduce cargo loads by 30% to 60%.
New Strategy Center names another potential target: the construction site of the Neptun Deep subsea gas pipeline in Romania’s exclusive economic zone, which the report says is not covered by NATO’s Article 5 collective defense guarantee.
The center warns that if provocations continue or escalate,
Romania could for the first time invoke NATO’s Article 4 to begin formal
consultations with allies and request additional intelligence, surveillance,
and reconnaissance capabilities.