Over Thursday and Friday, the companies’ combined market capitalization shrank by RUB424 billion ($5.2 billion). By 8:11 p.m. Moscow time on Oct. 23, Rosneft shares were trading at RUB389.85, down 3 percent from pre-sanctions levels. In intraday trading, the stock hit a low of RUB383.15, its weakest since May 2023, cutting Rosneft’s market value by RUB127 billion ($1.56 billion).
Lukoil shares lost 7.2 percent of their value over the two days, wiping out RUB297 billion ($3.66 billion). Vagit Alekperov, Lukoil’s largest shareholder and one of Russia’s wealthiest billionaires, saw the value of his 28 percent stake decline by RUB83 billion (just over $1 billion).
At the same time, both companies have been under pressure even before the U.S. sanctions announced on Oct. 22: in H1 2025, Rosneft’s profits plunged threefold, while Lukoil’s fell by half.
Analysts at Russia’s Alfa-Bank warn that the U.S. Treasury sanctions will further complicate operations by deterring counterparties fearful of secondary sanctions, potentially eating into exports. The restrictions target not only Rosneft and Lukoil but also 30 Rosneft subsidiaries and six Lukoil affiliates. U.S. action could force Lukoil to scale back trading through its Dubai arm, Litasco Middle East, and complicate Rosneft’s deliveries to India.
On Oct. 22, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced the new measures “due to Russia's lack of serious commitment to the peace process for ending the war in Ukraine.” The sanctions targeted Rosneft and Lukoil. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the sanctions are a signal to the Kremlin that it is time to “stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire.”