ISW examines Russia’s offensive strategy and the possible consequences for Kursk Oblast

Russian forces are preparing for a new offensive in the coming weeks, potentially spanning more than 1,000 kilometers of the front, according to Ukrainian military analysts.

With the arrival of spring, Moscow is intensifying operations in the Lyman, Pokrovsk, and Orikhiv sectors while also launching attacks in northern Sumy Oblast.

Despite these efforts, analysts say Russian troops have not achieved significant tactical gains. Ukraine’s Defense Forces continue counterattacks near Pokrovsk and Toretsk, while Russian troops have advanced about three kilometers from the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk border in two areas.

The Kremlin is likely using this offensive to fuel panic in the information space, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts believe Russia lacks the reserves for large-scale assaults on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhya without redeploying forces.

Even with a troop shift, Russia is unlikely to launch a coordinated offensive on three major cities due to heavy losses in armor and personnel.

Since winter 2022, Russia has not demonstrated the ability to conduct complex, multi-front operations.

There are no clear signs of major Russian troop movements toward Sumy, Kharkiv, or Zaporizhzhya, though limited rotations may have occurred.

Russian forces may attempt to push within artillery range of key cities, aiming to make conditions unbearable for civilians or set the stage for future ground operations.

The Kremlin may also use any battlefield gains as leverage in potential negotiations.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed that Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast have moved to stronger defensive positions.

On March 28, he noted Ukrainian forces were physically present in Kursk, taking steps to disperse Russian troops near the border to prevent an incursion into Sumy Oblast.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Russia is preparing a new offensive within the next two months, particularly in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.