Russia faces challenges in evacuating troops and equipment from Syria

In Syria, Russia maintains a sizable military presence. As of early 2024, indirect estimates placed the number of Russian troops in the country at approximately 7,500.

“In 2017, Moscow and Damascus signed a 49-year agreement granting Russia the use of bases in Tartus and Hmeimim until 2066. However, it is now unclear whether these bases will remain under Russian control,” the report notes. Journalists added that Russian leadership appears to lack long-term plans for these facilities, signaling an intent to discuss their fate with Syria’s new government.

The Tartus and Hmeimim bases are not the only locations hosting Russian troops. The BBC report highlighted that if previous media claims are accurate and Russian commanders have reached out to Türkiye for assistance in withdrawing forces, this would facilitate evacuation from remote areas but not everywhere. Some regions with Russian troop presence lack any Turkish influence.

“To relocate troops to Tartus or Hmeimim for eventual evacuation to Russia, negotiations would be required with various factions,” the publication stated.

The evacuation itself is expected to be highly challenging. In addition to 7,500 personnel, Russia’s contingent includes a large arsenal of weapons and military equipment, including armored vehicles and air defense systems. If Russia opts for an urgent withdrawal from Hmeimim, hundreds of flights using An-124 and Il-76 aircraft would be needed in a very short period.

The maritime route through the Tartus naval base is also problematic. Russian vessels cannot transit Türkiye’s Bosporus and Dardanelles straits into the Black Sea, as Türkiye closed these straits to warring nations following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Thus, journalists concluded that any Russian decision to withdraw troops from Syria would involve a costly and large-scale operation.

Assad regime’s collapse and Russian withdrawal

Russia, the aggressor state, deployed its military to Syria in 2015 to assist dictator Bashar Assad in securing victory in the civil war, which had been ongoing for four years at the time. Russian aircraft repeatedly bombed Syrian cities, targeting civilian populations.

On Nov. 28, 2024, reports emerged of opposition forces in Syria launching a major offensive, seizing one city after another. Assad’s regime eventually collapsed, and the dictator fled Damascus with his family on Dec. 8, reportedly seeking refuge in Russia, according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry’s HUR intelligence agency reported that Russian troops began withdrawing from major Syrian cities, abandoning bases stocked with significant arsenals. Additionally, the Kremlin dismissed Sergei Kisel, the commander of the Russian contingent.

On Dec. 8, HUR stated that Russian forces were evacuating their contingent, including ships from Tartus and remaining weaponry by air from Hmeimim.

On Oct. 9, CNN Türk, citing its sources, reported that Russia had requested Türkiye’s support to ensure the safe withdrawal of its forces from Syria following Assad’s regime collapse.