A large Russian military contingent remains in Syria, with
an estimated 7,500 personnel as of early 2024. The troops and equipment,
including armored vehicles and missile systems, are deployed across various
regions.
“In 2017, Moscow and Damascus signed a 49-year agreement for
the use of bases in Tartus and Khmeimim. However, it’s uncertain whether these
will remain under Russian control,” journalists noted. Russia has indicated it
plans to discuss the bases’ future with the new Syrian government.
Beyond Tartus and Khmeimim, Russia has other military
installations in Syria. Reports suggest Russia has approached Türkiye to secure
assistance in withdrawing troops, particularly from remote areas. However,
Turkish forces are absent in several regions where Russian troops are stationed.
“To transfer troops to Tartus or Khmeimim for evacuation to
Russia, negotiations with various factions will be required,” the report
states.
Directly evacuating Russia’s contingent from Syria presents
logistical challenges. A full withdrawal would require hundreds of flights
using An-124 and Il-76 aircraft within a short time.
A maritime route via the naval base in Tartus also poses
problems. Russian ships cannot pass through Türkiye’s Bosporus and Dardanelles
straits into the Black Sea. Türkiye closed the straits to military vessels of
warring states following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Journalists conclude that any evacuation by Russia would be
a costly and extensive operation.
Fall of Assad’s regime and Türkiye’s role in withdrawal
Russia deployed its military to Syria in 2015 to support
Bashar Assad’s regime during the civil war. Russian airstrikes repeatedly
targeted Syrian cities and civilians.
On Nov. 28, 2024, reports indicated that opposition forces
launched a major offensive, capturing city after city. Assad’s regime
collapsed, and the dictator fled Damascus with his family on Dec. 8, reportedly
seeking refuge in Russia, according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.
Ukraine’s HUR intelligence service stated that Russian
forces began withdrawing from major Syrian cities, leaving behind military
bases stocked with substantial weaponry. The Kremlin also dismissed Sergei
Kisel, the commander of its Syrian contingent.
On Dec. 8, HUR reported that Russia was relocating ships
from Tartus and transporting remaining armaments via Khmeimim airbase.
CNN Türk reported on Dec. 9 that Russia had sought Türkiye’s
assistance to ensure a safe withdrawal of its forces following Assad’s
downfall.
The situation underscores the complexities of Russia’s
military engagement in Syria and the challenges posed by its potential exit
strategy.