Preobrazhensky said he is skeptical that a major mobilization wave is in the cards. He argued that Russian authorities are currently supplying enough fighters to the front through volunteer contracts and other means and are increasingly pressuring people to sign up. In some cases, he said, enlistment results from coercion; in others, people sign up after losing businesses or livelihoods.
He noted that the 2022 decree dictator Vladimir Putin used to announce an earlier mobilization remains in force, so the Kremlin does not need to enact new legislation now.
Preobrazhensky added that the Kremlin plans to conduct the State Duma vote under a strict script it does not want to disrupt, despite problems such as fuel shortages, growing public discontent, and difficulties in Crimea. For that reason, he said, officials are unlikely to publicly announce a new, large mobilization this fall unless they are certain it is essential for an immediate military victory.
He conceded that some in the Russian military leadership favor declaring mobilization, but he said Putin’s economic advisers strongly oppose it. Instead, Preobrazhensky said, authorities will continue a “creeping” mobilization that has been ongoing, possibly raising its scale somewhat, but they are unlikely to make a public announcement because of the unpopularity of the move and the risk of mass protests.
On July 26, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
said Putin plans a new mobilization this fall and predicted it could follow
Duma elections on Sept. 20, possibly sending 300,000 to 500,000 people to the
front.