Russia launching heaviest eastern Ukraine offensive in 9 months, UK intel says

Russian troops are assaulting the “heavily defended” town of Avdiyivka in Donetsk Oblast, which has been on the front line since 2014. Avdiyivka is the main obstacle for Russian troops in their attempt to occupy the entirety of Donetsk Oblast.

UK Defense Intelligence notes that Russia is attacking the settlement with several armored battalions. At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers have so far managed to repell the Russian invasion forces, who have suffered heavy losses in equipment and personnel.

The slow progress and heavy losses during the Russian offensive have led to a change in the nature of Moscow's messages, which now report "an active defense" rather than offense, UK intel says.

Despite the Russian military’s efforts, the capture of Avdiyivka by Moscow still "looks unlikely" in the short term, UK Defense Ministry concludes.

Russia's offensive on Avdiyivka - What is known

Russian troops intensified their offensive on Avdiyivka on Oct. 10, launching massive attacks on the Donbas town.

The head of Avdiyivka’s military administration, Vitaliy Barabash, said that Oct. 10 saw "probably the largest attack on the city in the entire full-scale war," but the situation was under control. The Ukrainian Armed Forces said that the Russian military wants to surround Avdiyivka, and is throwing a large amount of equipment and personnel into battle.

The representative of the Joint Press Center of the Tavria Defense Forces, Oleksandr Shtupun, said that the Russian occupation forces are continuing active offensive actions in the area of Avdiyivka and consider the town as an opportunity to gain at least some kind of a significant "triumph" and turn the tide of hostilities.

On Oct. 16, Barabash noted that the Russian occupation forces had stopped shelling Avdiyivka, but two people had been killed in shelling west of the town.

On the same day, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported in an evening summary that in the Avdiyivka sector, Russians conducted unsuccessful assaults with the support of aviation in the vicinity of Avdiyivka and Pervomaiske, Donetsk Oblast, but the Defense Forces had managed to repel seven Russian attacks.