Russian invaders have entered active phase of spring offensive

He noted that the Russian army has already entered the active phase of its spring-summer offensive, meaning no further sharp escalation is expected at this stage.

According to Trehubov, Russian forces are currently not accumulating resources but instead actively expending existing reserves.

“The question is when they will exhaust those resources, carry out another replenishment and perhaps try to do something again in the summer. But at the moment, they are in a phase not of accumulating resources, but rather of spending them,” he said.

Trehubov also said Russian forces are making little use of armored vehicles because of their low effectiveness.

“Any attempt to weld on another layer of protection and turn a tank into something resembling an anthill is still ineffective. It just means one more drone will be needed against it. As of now, armored vehicles are used very little, and motorcycles are used only to a limited extent,” he said.

He added that the number of drones of various types on the battlefield has increased significantly, while more active use of ground robotic systems is also expected in the near future. Warm and dry weather, he said, favors more intensive drone strikes against Russian forces.

On May 7, Bloomberg reported that Ukraine expects a new large-scale Russian offensive this summer and has warned about the risk of further escalation.

On April 28, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia’s political leadership was preparing for additional offensive operations and planned to involve more troops, including through expanded mobilization efforts.

He also stressed that Ukraine’s main objective is to continue destroying enemy forces by increasing irreversible Russian losses, expanding drone use on the front line and intensifying “long-range sanctions” against Russia’s military and oil industries.

In an interview on April 19, Zelenskyy said Russia would need a major mobilization effort to attempt another large-scale offensive against Ukraine or launch parallel offensives with smaller forces.

At the same time, on April 24, NATO Military Committee Chairman Adm. Giuseppe Cavo Dragone and EU Military Committee Chairman Gen. Sean Clancy said the front line in Ukraine was currently not shifting significantly and that Russia was not planning to announce a new wave of mobilization.