Russia massing troops near Sumy, but no storm expected yet — expert
Russian war29 May 2025, 05:13 PM
A Ukrainian military expert has assessed the current situation near Sumy Oblast, saying Russian forces are unlikely to be able to launch a direct assault on Sumy or Kharkiv but will continue efforts to get close enough to strike with drones and disrupt logistics.
“Russia is not moving where it wants, but where it can,” the expert stated, dismissing Kremlin rhetoric about full occupation of Sumy Oblast or creation of a buffer zone as "nonsense." The true picture, he emphasized, is being defined by battlefield realities, not propaganda.
The expert estimated that Russia’s “Sever” group, reportedly up to 67,000 troops, operates along the northern border from Chernihiv to Kharkiv. Its core offensive force includes the 155th and 40th Marine Brigades — units that fought in the Kursk operation. Their recent territorial gains were limited: 200–500 meters in some forested areas near Loknya and Oleshnya, largely due to air superiority and use of fiber-optic drones resistant to jamming.
He warned that Russia’s primary tactic is to use small assault groups — including motorcycle teams — to gradually occupy positions and push forward.
Despite a modest advance of 60 square kilometers in a month, the expert said Oblast is heavily fortified and defended. He added that while a breakthrough to Sumy is unlikely in the near future, Russia is determined to move close enough to use FPV drones and guided bombs to target infrastructure and logistics routes, such as the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk corridor — where a drone strike recently hit a civilian vehicle 25 km from the front line.
In conclusion, he stated:
“There is no doubt that this Russian grouping is insufficient for launching any meaningful assault on Sumy or Kharkiv. But the threat of terror strikes using drones remains high, and defensive preparations must continue.”
“There is no doubt that this Russian grouping is insufficient for launching any meaningful assault on Sumy or Kharkiv. But the threat of terror strikes using drones remains high, and defensive preparations must continue.”