The report noted the intervals between Russia’s previous uses of the Oreshnik missile against Ukraine. While about a year and a half passed between the first and second strikes, only four and a half months separated the second and third attacks.
“This could indicate that Russia has increased production of this intermediate-range ballistic missile,” the article’s authors suggested.
At the same time, analysts questioned the effectiveness of the weapon in its non-nuclear configuration.
They also warned that the Oreshnik missile could pose a serious threat to civilians.
Discussing whether Russia may have intended to strike Kyiv but missed by about 80 kilometers (50 miles), experts suggested Moscow may instead have deliberately targeted Bila Tserkva, possibly aiming at an airfield.
However, the OSINT channel CyberBoroshno reported that the missile struck a garage cooperative. Emergency services in Kyiv Oblast also said three garages caught fire at a damaged garage complex in Bila Tserkva district.
According to the Defense Express article, the two previous Oreshnik strikes against Ukraine — on Dnipro on Nov. 21, 2024, and on Lviv Oblast on Jan. 9, 2026 — may have had practical military objectives.
The first strike may have served as a “rehearsal for a nuclear attack,” while the second could have been an attempt by Russia to test how Europe would track the missile launch, the authors suggested.
The attacks may also have been intended as propaganda and psychological pressure on Ukrainians.
“Usually, warnings about the possible use of this IRBM are issued in advance, and the main and truly nerve-racking question is whether the Russians would dare to use it with a nuclear warhead,” Defense Express wrote.
Analysts added that such a scenario remains unlikely, though it is still capable of triggering panic among the population.
On May 23, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian intelligence had received information from U.S. and European partners about Russia preparing a strike involving an Oreshnik missile.
Overnight into May 24, Ukraine’s Air Force warned of the possible use of an intermediate-range ballistic missile.
Later, monitoring channels circulated videos purportedly showing a Russian strike near Bila Tserkva in Kyiv Oblast. The footage appeared to show the missile’s warheads separating before impact, followed by a series of explosions.
Subsequently, Yurii Ihnat, head of communications for Ukraine’s Air Force, confirmed that Russia had struck the area near Bila Tserkva with an RS-26 Rubezh (Oreshnik) intermediate-range ballistic missile.
Zelenskyy also confirmed that Russia had used the missile in the attack.