Assessing the impact of the attack, the analysts said the strike on the Moscow Oil Refinery was highly advantageous not only because it targeted a facility critical to fuel supplies for Moscow Oblast.
They added that the significance of the attack extends beyond its political implications.
Perhaps most importantly, the Kremlin is likely to decide to further strengthen Moscow's air defenses. According to Defense Express, this can be achieved only by redeploying air defense assets from other oblasts and facilities, potentially making those locations more vulnerable to future attacks.
Attack on Moscow on June 18
Russia's capital came under a large-scale drone attack on the morning of June 18.
Major fires and heavy smoke were reported across the city, including in the area of the Moscow Oil Refinery in the Kapotnya district.
The strike marked the second attack on the Moscow Oil Refinery in two days.
On June 16, the facility was targeted by Ukrainian drones. According to Ukraine's Security Service (SBU), the attack damaged the refinery's "heart" — a key primary oil-processing unit.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces confirmed the latest strike on the refinery, which is located about 15 kilometers (9 miles) from the Kremlin. According to the military, the attack triggered major fires at at least five locations within the facility, including oil-processing units and the tank farm.
The Moscow Oil Refinery has an annual processing capacity of more than 12 million metric tons of crude oil and plays a role in supplying fuel to the Russian military, the General Staff said.