Russia tests Yars missile, boosts shell production; nuclear threats unlikely — ISW

Russia’s Defense Ministry announced on March 1 the “successful” combat training launch of the RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile, capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin, in his address to the Federal Assembly on Feb. 29, threatened Western countries that Russia already has all the possibilities to strike them.

Putin’s statements are nothing more than a banal “saber-rattling” to instill fear in Western audiences to weaken support for Ukraine, the ISW analysts said.

“Russian nuclear use in Ukraine and beyond is highly unlikely,” military experts say.

The gradual increase in Russia’s military power appears realistic, the ISW said, particularly in terms of increasing mobilization, not only to fill its significant losses in Ukraine but also to create new combat groups.

“Russian authorities will likely use annual combat training for Russian reservists to support crypto-mobilization efforts,” the ISW said.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the annual decree on conscripting Russian reservists for military training in 2024. Russian reservists in the Russian armed forces, Rosgvardia, Ministry of Emergency Situations, Federal Security Service (FSB), and other state security agencies will undergo combat training. Russian citizens who have previously been conscripted into the Russian military are considered reservists. Russian authorities will likely use this mandatory combat training to try to recruit Russian reservists through ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts that offer incentives for signing military contracts.”

The UK Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian military-industrial complex significantly increased artillery ammunition production in 2023 and is likely to continue this in 2024, reaching a peak in “the next 12 months.”

Ukraine is also trying to develop its own defense-industrial base to become more self-sufficient and less dependent on its Western partners.

This is especially important given the refusal of the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Mike Johnson to sign a bill on military aid for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.