Russia’s fighting capacity will continue to degrade in 2026 — Michael Kofman

“They were, to some extent, overwhelmed by losses,” Kofman described how the last year played out for invading Russian forces.

“They now have a shortage of personnel on key axes and are trying to replenish their units and prepare for more intense fighting. Last year, Russia’s losses that could not be compensated were so large that they had to use 90 percent of their monthly recruit intake just to replace losses.”

If those trends continue into 2026, Kofman said, Russian forces may struggle to sustain offensive operations across as many directions as before, and Ukraine could keep Russian advances at a creeping pace, as it did in 2025.

“How Russian forces operate simply does not lend itself to achieving operationally significant breakthroughs; a lot depends on how Ukraine organizes its defense,” Kofman said.

“What I saw on the front shows that the situation is not critical for the Armed Forces of Ukraine; there are a few problematic areas. But if 2026 develops like 2025, that is mostly positive for Ukraine.”

Kofman also noted that Ukraine is developing mid-range strike capabilities, targeting enemy assets beyond 30 kilometers. He said cuts to Russian access to Starlink terminals will further degrade Moscow’s strike capabilities over time.