He noted that the issue of Donbas is one of the key topics in political negotiations.
According to Palisa, Russia’s political leadership has ordered its forces to seize the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within their administrative borders by the end of this year.
However, Russia’s military leadership considers the deadline unrealistic and has asked for it to be extended until March 31.
“My subjective opinion is that even March 31 is unrealistic,” Palisa added.
Statements on Donbas
On May 13, the Financial Times reported that senior Russian military commanders had convinced Vladimir Putin that Russia’s military could capture all of Donbas by fall 2026, after which the Kremlin could make additional territorial demands on Ukraine.
On June 29, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia had again postponed the deadline it set for its forces to capture Donbas, this time until Dec. 31, 2026. According to Zelenskyy, the Kremlin has changed such deadlines about 15 times since the start of the full-scale war, and if Russia does not end hostilities, the deadline will have to be postponed again.
Zelenskyy has repeatedly stressed that Ukraine will not withdraw its troops from Donbas. He said Russian forces would need at least two more years to fully capture Donetsk Oblast and would lose about 800,000 troops in the process.