In an interview with NV, Shiryayev explained that many Russian regional governments are now grappling with severe budget deficits, compounded by structural crises in key industries—symptoms of deeper systemic problems across the Russian economy.
“Tatarstan’s budget deficit this year will more than double—from 13.5 billion rubles ($172 million) to 31 billion rubles ($394 million),” Shiryayev said. “With projected revenues of 450 billion rubles ($5.7 billion), that’s a critically high 6–7% deficit.”
In Kemerovo Oblast (Kuzbass), where the economy depends heavily on coal, production is declining. The region has resorted to borrowing at an eye-watering 25% annual interest rate. “How they plan to repay these loans remains unclear,” he said.
Other struggling regions rely on Russia’s military-industrial complex (MIC). “Without the MIC, Udmurtia and Chuvashia would be economically depressed,” Shiryayev noted. “For now, they may show 'positive' figures. But in regions with more diversified economies, the statistics are already going negative.”
In Tomsk Oblast, Shiryayev said local officials have openly admitted that reserves are being drained by geopolitical expenses—specifically, payments under military contracts.
Russia’s highly centralized budget system has led to dependency and stagnation, according to Shiryayev. “When everything you earn is sent to the center, why bother growing your tax base?”
Meanwhile, the Russian Finance Ministry is reportedly rejecting even basic funding requests from regional governments, including for housing subsidies and compensation for railway transport costs.
But the bleakest outlook, Shiryayev said, belongs to the temporarily occupied Donbas region.
“Local coal was intended for Russia’s European part—not China. Donbas metallurgy is gone. Mariupol is destroyed. Who are they going to sell this coal to? That direction is finished,” he said.
In Shiryayev’s view, the Russian system has no plan for rebuilding or sustaining the occupied territories. “If the Donbas wants to be Donbas again—the industrial backbone—it’s only possible through returning to Ukraine. Russia will prioritize saving its remote regions and Siberian mines,” he concluded.