Wheat loadings declined 4.7-fold to 427,400 metric tons, down from 2 million tons a year earlier. Barley exports plummeted to 5,500 tons compared to 233,500 tons in early October 2025, while corn shipments dropped to 2,700 tons from 51,000 tons.
The export footprint contracted significantly, with Russian wheat dispatched to only 12 destination countries compared to 21 nations a year ago. Egypt remained the primary buyer, taking 86,500 tons, though this marked a 7.3-fold decrease from the 633,500 tons imported during the corresponding window in 2025. Algeria ranked second, increasing purchases to 60,300 tons up from 5,800 tons.
Exports to Vietnam resumed at 48,000 tons after zero shipments last year. Deliveries to Somalia grew 7.6-fold to 41,000 tons (up from 5,400 tons), whereas sales to Turkiye dropped eightfold to 37,000 tons (from 297,000 tons), and shipments to Libya fell sixfold to 30,000 tons (from 179,800 tons). New destination markets included Nigeria (30,000 tons) and Mexico (28,500 tons).
Barley and corn were exported exclusively to Iran: barley volumes fell from 159,200 tons down to 5,500 tons, while corn shipments shrank 16-fold to 2,750 tons.
The corporate and port handling footprint also narrowed dramatically:
Only 10 export entities shipped wheat in early October, down from 35 companies operating last year.
Bulk handling of cereals and pulses was conducted across just seven ports, compared to 35 operational terminals during the previous season.
Not a single Black Sea port was recorded among active loading points.
Cargoes shifted almost entirely to northern and inland waterways: Ust-Luga handled 159,600 tons, Vysotsk handled 137,000 tons, and Saint Petersburg loaded 122,800 tons. Makhachkala accounted for 12,300 tons, Astrakhan handled 11,000 tons, and Vladivostok dispatched 5,000 tons.
Widening Price Discount and Black Sea Denial
Lagging export benchmarks: Russian wheat pricing has fallen sharply behind global market values. In early October, European wheat rose $2 to $275 per ton, and U.S. wheat stood at $286 per ton, while the estimated FOB [Free on Board - ed.] price for Russian wheat at Novorossiysk slipped to $210 per ton.
Domestic farmgate price crash: "Purchase prices for wheat from Russian domestic producers have broken below the critical threshold of $100 in dollar terms, dropping to $99.20 per ton," said Elena Tyurina, director of the analytical department at the Russian Grain Union. Tyurina attributed the drop to export constraints, the search for detour logistics corridors, and rising transport overheads, noting that exporters now pin hopes on Baltic terminals handling up to 1.5 million tons monthly.
Ukrainian maritime pressure: The total absence of Black Sea terminals from export statistics follows successful asymmetric operations by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov basins. Naval drone strikes, missile interdiction, and heightened commercial shipping risks have effectively curtailed the aggressor state's southern maritime export capacity, forcing Moscow to explore complex overland grain transit routes via China.