Russian invaders are advancing in three main directions with clear objectives for future operations — ISW

Analysts report that Russian forces are currently conducting intensive combat operations along most of the front lines in Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhya oblasts, with a particular focus on offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast.

“As they have since October 2023,” experts emphasized.

The analysts noted that Russia has increased the pace of its offensive operations in early 2025, maintaining this intensity over the past five months.

Previously, Russian forces struggled to conduct large-scale offensive operations simultaneously. Instead, they compensated by launching pulsating, more limited offensives along different sections of the front, the experts said. As a result, the intensity of one area would decrease as the intensity of another increased.

“However, Russian forces are now apparently advancing in at least three simultaneous large-scale offensive operations in the Borova-Lyman, Kostiantynivka, and Novopavlivka directions,” the report states.

In addition, analysts suggest that Russian forces are likely allocating a significant portion of their personnel to the offensive in the northern part of Sumy Oblast.

“While Ukrainian forces are likely slowing down Russian advances in this area,” the report added.

Analysts also pointed out that Russian forces have not achieved significant success during this period of intensified operations, largely due to poorly trained infantry.

The continuation of these intensified offensive operations likely reflects the extent of Russia's current offensive capabilities, and analysts believe the occupiers are unlikely to launch a separate summer offensive.

On June 22, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, reported that Russian invaders are adding an average of 8,000-9,000 soldiers each month and have a strategic reserve in place. He stated that approximately 695,000 Russian troops, along with an operational reserve, are concentrated on Ukrainian territory.

“They are preparing for a protracted war, a war of attrition. This is their main strategy. They want to pressure us with their human resources and exhaust us with their mass,” Syrsky said.

He also suggested that Russia may aim to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts during the summer offensive and create a so-called “buffer zone” in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.