According to new CSIS estimates, Russian battlefield deaths from Feb. 2022 through June 2026 could be as high as 450,000, and total combat casualties (killed, wounded, and missing) reached about 1.4 million.
“In addition, Russia’s monthly casualty rates of over 30,000 per month in 2026 have likely exceeded Russia’s recruitment rates of roughly 27,000 new recruits per month,” the report said.
“The Russia-Ukraine casualty rate has likely risen to nearly
8:1 in the first half of 2026, up from between 2:1 and 3:1 for much of the war,
in large part due to Ukraine’s use of drones—including AI-enabled drones—as
part of its aggressive air interdiction campaign.”
CSIS estimated Ukrainian total combat losses in the same period at between 525,000 and 625,000, including 125,000 to 150,000 killed. The center said combined losses for both countries exceeded 2 million.
The report said the area of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russian forces contracted in spring 2026.
“Russian forces lost more ground than they captured in both April and May, a net loss of roughly 400 square kilometers and their first monthly net losses since August 2024—yet another sign of Russia’s military struggles,” the analysis said.
“Russia’s ground offensive has largely stalled, with an
average rate of advance of approximately 50 meters per day around
Kostiantynivka, 70 meters per day around Pokrovsk, and 90 meters per day around
Sloviansk [in Donetsk Oblast]. These are among the slowest rates of advance in
any war over the last century.”