"They are no longer meeting even the OPEC quota they have; they are already producing less. I don't know why this happened, because oil exports specifically weren't under any major threat," Kuyun noted.
He added that strikes by the Ukrainian Defense Forces on Russian oil refineries and their shutdowns mean that the crude oil could have been redirected for export instead, but Russian oil exports are still lower than they used to be.
"Things are happening whose nature is not yet fully understood," the expert explained.
"The Russians have classified all data on oil production, refining, and exports. We only see Western information monitoring agencies stating that these volumes are falling. What leverage could they have? Previously, they had the leverage of threatening to reduce production. Now it's the opposite: the lower the price, the more they need to export to earn more. They have more than enough motivation, especially since we all hear and understand what budget problems already exist there and the forecasts that this will only intensify."
Kuyun also noted that if oil prices drop to $50, at least half of Russian oil will be exported without any profit.
"To transport it from the oil fields in Siberia to the export terminals, they will hit exactly that $50 mark, meaning they will be giving it away without profit. For us, this is simply an ideal scenario, both from the perspective of cutting off funding for the military machine and from our standpoint as ordinary fuel consumers who need low prices," he explained.
Russian oil exports
On June 8, Reuters reported, citing market sources, that Russia intends to cut crude oil exports as it plans to increase oil refining volumes in June amid threats of fuel shortages.
Sources noted that oil loadings from Russia's western ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk could drop to 1.7 million barrels per day in June, down from 2.5 million barrels per day in May.
The decline could be partially related to a reduction in oil production levels, sources said.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak earlier admitted that Russian oil production has fallen since the beginning of the year. He attributed this to "unplanned maintenance at oil refineries."
On June 2, Bloomberg reported that Russia was exporting its largest volume of oil since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The surge in export volumes occurred amid Kyiv's unprecedented attacks on Russian oil refineries, which forced Russia to increase its crude supply to the global market.