Importers turn to U.S. and Australia as Russian strikes paralyze Ukraine grain export — Reuters

Wheat benchmark futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) have surged by more than 17% since early July following the disruptions.

Due to the attacks, cargo carriers have postponed or canceled dozens of vessel loadings at the peak of the export season. Between July and September, Asian milling companies ordered approximately 2 to 2.5 million metric tons of Black Sea wheat, representing 30% to 50% of their overall import demand.

Fearing extended logistical delays, international buyers are shifting purchases toward suppliers in Australia, the United States, and Argentina.

Sourcing from alternative markets imposes substantial price premiums on importing nations:

• Black Sea wheat trades at $260–$280 per ton;

• American wheat is quoted from $305 per ton;

• Australian Premium White stands at $315–$320 per ton, delivered to Asian ports.

The supply crunch has been partially mitigated by improved domestic harvests across North Africa and the Middle East. Egypt’s government secured record domestic crop volumes, while favorable rainfall improved production yields in Morocco and Tunisia.

Nevertheless, several nations maintain critical dependence on Black Sea grain supplies:

• Egypt sourced over 82% of its imported wheat from Ukraine and Russia during the first half of the year;

• Indonesia contracted roughly 600,000 tons of regional grain for the July–September window and faces limited market alternatives due to tight global surpluses;

• Algeria, Bangladesh, Jordan, Thailand, and Vietnam remain heavily dependent on Black Sea maritime shipments.

Earlier reports confirmed that Russian forces have targeted commercial vessels trapped in Mykolaiv Oblast ports since the launch of the 2022 full-scale invasion.

In response to infrastructure damage, state railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia imposed cargo transit restrictions toward port-adjacent railway stations across Odesa Oblast.

Amid the escalating attacks, the United Nations warned of mounting risks to global food security caused by Russian strikes on Black Sea export infrastructure.

Domestically, the maritime blockade has triggered broader industrial fallout. The Southern Mining and Processing Plant in Kryvyi Rih partially suspended iron ore extraction due to naval strikes against merchant shipping, while mining company Ferrexpo halted seaborne pellet shipments following attacks on Greater Odesa ports.

The halt of seaborne agricultural exports has crushed domestic Ukrainian grain prices threefold — dropping to 3,000 UAH ($72) per ton for direct farmgate sales.

Ukrainian agricultural producers have raised alarms over the compounding crisis. The Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC) submitted an urgent appeal to Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi requesting anti-crisis intervention to mitigate the paralysis of port traffic. The association warned that terminal disruptions, damaged berths, export limitations, and surging fuel costs threaten domestic agricultural producers with widespread insolvency.

The National Bank of Ukraine also detailed the severe macroeconomic repercussions of the port strikes, noting that Ukraine exported 900,000 tons of agricultural goods between Aug. 1 and Aug. 18 — only 31% of normal logistical capacity.

The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food acknowledged that Ukraine’s broader agricultural exports face the risk of a severe collapse.