The ROK, sympathetic to Ukraine’s predicament, has been providing Ukraine with humanitarian aid and nonlethal military supplies, such as helmets and mine detectors, but has refrained from providing direct lethal assets to the country due to domestic and diplomatic constraints. Ukraine’s military, however, appears to be using 155mm shells that have been indirectly supplied by South Korea through Poland.
As the Russian-Ukrainian war rages in its third year, there is growing recognition that its outcome could have ripple effects well beyond its regional theater. It is not simply a military confrontation between two countries but is directly connected to international politics across the board, as well as security in other areas. In this case, a situation in Eurasian geopolitics is closely linked with the security situation on the Korean Peninsula.
Solidarity and constraints
In 2023, Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska visited Seoul, the capital of South Korea, as a special envoy of the Ukrainian president [Volodymyr Zelenskyy]. During her visit, she met with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol at the Yongsan Presidential Office. In their conversation, President Yoon expressed support for Ukraine, solidarity from the Korean people, and condolences to the families of the fallen, while also praising Olena Zelenska’s efforts. In response, Zelenska expressed gratitude to Seoul for its support and assistance and requested further expansion in areas where possible. She expressed hope that South Korea would provide non-lethal military equipment, such as mine detection and demining tools, ambulances, and actively participate in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, particularly in Kherson, where many ethnic Koreans had lived until recently. President Yoon also affirmed that South Korea would continue to offer active support to Ukraine in close cooperation with NATO members and the international community. Notably, Olena Zelenska did not request arms and ammunition from the South Korean leadership, demonstrating an understanding of the challenges Seoul faces on this issue.
Specifically, this refers to legislative and political constraints. South Korea’s export control laws prohibit the supply of weapons to countries at war, although these restrictions are not as stringent as in Japan, where such provisions are enshrined in the Constitution. Theoretically, it is possible to amend the legislation, but this would be extremely difficult given that the opposition Democratic Party of Korea holds a majority in parliament, rather than President Yoon Suk Yeol’s People Power Party.
President Yoon Suk Yeol criticized Russia’s actions at that time, denouncing them as attempts to alter the status quo through force and coercive diplomacy. He stated that such actions represent a blatant violation of international law and necessitate consolidated and stringent responses from the international community to “prevent the establishment of a dangerous precedent”.
South Korea’s political landscape
However, it is important to understand that the human factor plays a significant role. Yoon Suk Yeol and his conservative People Power Party came to power in May 2022. Conservatives traditionally align with the U.S. foreign policy. Moreover, Yoon Suk Yeol, a former prosecutor with no experience in foreign policy, is surrounded by competent advisors who actively support the traditional right-wing foreign policy course. At the same time, the opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), which holds a majority in parliament, takes an entirely opposite position. The DPK, being left-wing nationalists, fervently criticize the president for his pro-U.S. foreign policy and for aiding Ukraine, accusing him of dragging the country into a “foreign war.” Therefore, Seoul’s current support is not systematic but a temporary phenomenon, subject to change after the next elections.
The likelihood of a change in power in 2027 is relatively high, as Yoon Suk Yeol’s approval rating is unstable due to his strategically important but socially unpopular decisions, such as the normalization of relations with Japan. The president’s party’s precarious position was confirmed by the parliamentary elections held in April 2024. As a result of the elections in the unicameral 300-seat National Assembly, the DPK secured 176 seats (4 fewer compared to the previous election), and along with other smaller parties, the opposition gained a solid majority of 192 seats. The People Power Party holds only 108 seats. Should a Democrat president come to power, there is a high probability of a shift in ROK’s Ukraine policy towards a neutral stance.
Indeed, South Korea is a nation that, in many respects, aligns with Western values and supports the principles promoted by the West, led by the United States. However, the domestic political factor will play an important role in the context of assistance to Ukraine in the war. In this context, for pragmatic dialogue with South Korea, it would be crucial for Ukraine to initiate the signing of a bilateral agreement. Such a document would not only define the development of bilateral relations but also involve South Korea in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.
Confronting nuclear terrorism
The Russian-Ukrainian war has direct security implications for South Korea. Russia’s behavior and nuclear blackmail have served as a detrimental example for North Korea, which has expanded its missile test program and, according to some reports, is preparing for its seventh nuclear test at the Punggye-ri site. This situation underscores the need for Kyiv and Seoul to strengthen their collaboration. Given the challenges and threats facing the two democracies, the consolidation of efforts between Ukraine and South Korea against dictatorial regimes that recklessly brandish nuclear weapons and engage in nuclear blackmail becomes particularly significant. Russia and North Korea are prominent examples of such regimes, whose aggressive policies and attempts to use nuclear weapons as instruments of intimidation pose a serious threat to international security.
South Korea’s support for Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war not only strengthens the defense cooperation between the two countries but also underscores their shared stance against dictatorial regimes. Both countries face similar historical and political challenges: Ukraine deals with aggression from Russia, while South Korea faces a constant threat from North Korea. Both aggressive powers use nuclear weapons and the threat of their use as instruments to achieve their political goals, creating a dangerous precedent and undermining international security.
The security guarantee treaty signed between Moscow and Pyongyang in 2024 intensifies the need for consolidated efforts between Ukraine and South Korea. This treaty indicates the mutual support and strengthening of positions of the two dictatorial regimes on the international stage. United in their desire to undermine the international order, Russia and North Korea represent a serious threat to global peace and stability.
By consolidating their efforts, Ukraine and South Korea can effectively counter this threat. First, it is necessary to enhance diplomatic cooperation and coordination of actions on the international stage. This includes active participation in international organizations such as the UN and promoting initiatives aimed at strengthening control over the proliferation of nuclear weapons and preventing their use as instruments of blackmail.
South Korea and Ukraine defense synergies
South Korea’s support for Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war could be significant not only in terms of international law and geopolitical stability but also in terms of arms markets.
Firstly, South Korea is one of the leading producers of high-tech weapons and military equipment in the world. Supporting Ukraine can open new opportunities for strengthening defense cooperation between the two countries. Ukraine, actively modernizing its military, is a potential market for Korean weapons. Defense cooperation may include supplies of Korean weapons, technologies, and joint projects for the modernization and development of new weapon systems.
Secondly, South Korea has considerable experience in creating effective defense systems, which could be valuable for Ukraine. Specifically, missile defense systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, and cybersecurity are key areas where South Korea can share its experience and technologies with Ukraine. Such cooperation will not only strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities but also enhance South Korea’s prestige as a reliable partner in the global defense industry.
Additionally, supporting Ukraine may contribute to the development of military-technical cooperation with other countries interested in regional stability and security. By supporting Ukraine, South Korea will demonstrate its willingness to play an active role on the international stage and strengthens its position as an important player in the global arms market.
South Korea can also benefit from expanding cooperation with Ukrainian defense enterprises. Ukraine has extensive experience in the production and modernization of various types of weapons, including armored vehicles, artillery systems, and aviation. Joint projects can contribute to the development of both defense industries and the creation of new jobs.
Thus, South Korea’s support for Ukraine in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war is significant for the arms markets. Defense cooperation between the two countries opens new opportunities for the supply of high-tech weapons, exchange of experience and technologies, and strengthening the positions of both countries on the international stage. This cooperation not only enhances Ukraine’s defense capabilities but also develops South Korea’s military-technical potential, serving the interests of both countries and the global community as a whole.
It is also important to note that South Korea, as a country with a developed democracy and human rights, sees in supporting Ukraine an expression of solidarity with a people fighting for their freedom and independence. Having endured a devastating war and achieved democratic prosperity, South Korea can serve as an example for Ukraine in its pursuit of freedom and democratic values.
The support of Ukraine by South Korea is critically important for strengthening the international order and defending the principles of national sovereignty. Russian aggression against Ukraine represents a blatant violation of international law and the principles enshrined in the UN Charter. Supporting Ukraine demonstrates Seoul’s commitment to these principles, contributing to the maintenance of stability and peace on a global scale.
Moreover, support for Ukraine is crucial for ensuring geopolitical stability in various regions of the world, including East Asia. Ukraine’s success in resisting Russian aggression sends a powerful message to other potential aggressors that the international community is ready to unite against unlawful actions. This is especially important for South Korea, which faces a threat from North Korea. The consolidation of efforts against dictatorial regimes that use nuclear weapons and threats of their use for blackmail is vital for preventing the escalation of conflicts in these regions.
Finally, supporting Ukraine strengthens international cooperation and solidarity among democratic countries. South Korea, as one of the leading democracies with an advanced market economy and robust human rights, can make a significant contribution to Ukraine’s recovery and development efforts. Joint economic and humanitarian projects, as well as support in international organizations such as the UN, will help contribute to a safer and more stable international order, which serves the interests of all parties involved.
This text is a part of the project ‘Pragmatic Dialogue with the West: Why It Is Worth Supporting Ukraine’, undertaken with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation.
It presents the views of the author and not necessarily reflects the position of the International Renaissance Foundation.