However, he said European intelligence services would likely detect preparations for a large-scale Russian offensive against NATO.
“We saw the buildup of 100,000 troops around Ukraine, which had been growing for months,” Sikorski said.
At the same time, he warned that Russia’s intentions are worse than many Western European countries had expected and that Moscow is now capable of sabotage and provocations. According to Sikorski, NATO must be prepared for such actions.
On Feb. 26, Polish outlet Onet reported that Sikorski had estimated the cost of defending NATO’s eastern flank, including Poland, in the event of a Russian attack.
In a statement to parliament, Sikorski said defending NATO’s eastern flank against a potential Russian assault would cost “at least 1.2 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) — nearly as much as six years of the Polish state’s functioning.”
On March 26, Mark Rutte said in his 2025 report that if Russia were to attack NATO countries, one of its primary targets would likely be the energy sector — something already demonstrated by Russia’s war against Ukraine.
On April 14, Russia’s State Duma authorized Vladimir Putin to deploy troops to foreign countries under the pretext of “protecting the rights of Russian citizens,” including in cases involving their arrest or prosecution abroad.
On May 15, Carsten Breuer said Russia could be ready to attack NATO territory by 2029, though such a scenario could occur earlier.