Skepticism grows in West as Ukraine peace talks split into four tracks

People familiar with the process say four separate tracks are being negotiated in parallel, even as U.S. President Donald Trump faces what the paper calls a difficult but familiar choice.

Trump reportedly hoped Moscow and Kyiv would reach an agreement by Thanksgiving — Nov. 27 — but now may have to wait weeks, possibly until the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

On Dec. 5, a Ukrainian delegation is expected to meet with Trump’s envoys, keeping some hope alive. But Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has made clear he is sticking to maximalist demands. His recent talks in Moscow with Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner yielded no breakthrough.

That outcome leaves Trump with a hard decision. He can pressure Ukraine into making further concessions, step back from the peace process entirely — as he has sometimes hinted — or shift course and resume large-scale U.S. aid to Kyiv.

“I don’t know what the Kremlin is doing,” Trump said when asked about the results of the Dec. 2 meeting, which included Witkoff and Kushner. “I can say they had a fairly good meeting with Putin. We’ll find out,” he added.

That tone contrasts sharply with Trump’s earlier stance at his summit with Putin in Alaska, the NYT notes. At that time, he confidently predicted that the Russian and Ukrainian leaders would sit down together, reach a mutual understanding, and that he, Trump, would serve as mediator.

For months, Trump has been setting deadlines and insisting that a peace agreement was near. But Putin’s unchanged demands — particularly regarding Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial control — have left the former frustrated. Some observers had predicted Trump would walk away from the process altogether, yet in recent weeks, he has doubled down. According to the NYT, Trump may now believe that Ukraine’s battlefield losses and mounting Russian casualties could push both sides toward a deal.

Kyiv has been working to show it remains open to talks. Moscow, meanwhile, is dragging its feet, sticking to a familiar strategy of appearing to negotiate while avoiding real concessions.

The Dec. 2 meeting in the Kremlin between Putin and Witkoff — joined for the first time by Kushner — was the sixth round of such talks and the longest to date, lasting five hours. The NYT notes Kushner played a key role in negotiating the Abraham Accords and a Gaza ceasefire, but the Ukraine negotiations are shaping up differently — a reflection of the war’s far more complex nature.

According to sources familiar with the discussions, the four parallel negotiation tracks include: limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces and missile range during peacetime (grouped under sovereignty issues), territorial matters, economic cooperation, and broader questions of European security.

While talks are expected to continue, The New York Times concludes that few in Washington or Europe believe they will result in a lasting peace agreement.

On Dec. 2, Putin met with Witkoff and Kushner in the Kremlin to discuss proposals for ending the war — proposals developed during a Nov. 30 meeting in Florida between Ukrainian and U.S. delegations, based on a 28-point draft plan.

Following the meeting, Putin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters that no compromise had been reached. He said the territorial issue “is the most important” for both Russia and the United States. Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev, however, described the talks as “productive.”

On Dec. 3, Kyiv Post journalist Alex Raufoglu reported that a planned meeting between Witkoff and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, scheduled to take place in Europe following the Moscow talks, had been canceled.

On Dec. 4, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov is set to arrive in the United States for a follow-up meeting with Witkoff and Kushner.