Former Ukrainian ambassador outlines best and worst scenarios for Hungary election

First, in my view, this is not a sensation and not a surprise. The situation had been simmering for a long time and has finally erupted. This is primarily connected with the upcoming parliamentary elections in Hungary.

Second, I believe it is a major mistake to calmly expect that elections will take place in Hungary, Viktor Orbán will lose and we will be able to restore constructive dialogue with Hungary. I think the situation will not become simpler and will not be so straightforward.

Moreover, in my opinion, even the elections themselves cannot guarantee an improvement in Ukrainian-Hungarian relations.

Of course, the optimal scenario would be for opposition leader Péter Magyar to win, but other possible outcomes of the parliamentary elections should also be considered. At the moment, I would outline three possible scenarios.

The first scenario is that Magyar wins. But there is also the possibility that Orbán declares himself the winner through falsification and, immediately after that announcement, receives a congratulatory call from U.S. President Donald Trump. I believe that no one would be able to do much to challenge such a situation.

The second scenario is that Magyar defeats Orbán but fails to form a coalition. This is also a very likely outcome, because as of now I do not see potential coalition partners for a future Magyar government.

The third scenario is that even if Magyar wins and Orbán loses, Orbán could still remain in politics and in power in Hungary. He could be elected president of Hungary.

Of course, the Hungarian presidency has largely symbolic powers, but it holds a key authority — the right to veto all laws passed by parliament.

I could outline several more possible scenarios, but I will focus on these three. I believe Ukrainian diplomacy should not wait passively until April 12, when the elections take place. We need to anticipate different scenarios now and develop ways to neutralize Hungary’s negative influence on Ukraine’s European integration.

At present, Hungary is blocking €90 billion in EU assistance and also blocking the European Union’s 20th sanctions package against Russia, the aggressor.