Western elites are terrified of three scenarios:
1. Western elites are afraid of Ukraine's defeat: This would demonstrate the political failure of all those who supported Ukraine and the strengthening of the global authoritarian axis, with a high probability of Russian aggression in Europe and the beginning of Chinese aggression.
2. Western elites fear Russia's defeat: This means disintegration, collapse, humanitarian catastrophe, a large-scale refugee crisis, uncontrolled nuclear proliferation, and the excessive rise of China.
3. Western elites are afraid of the war dragging on: This would result in the accumulation of fatigue in their societies, aggravation of internal political confrontations, and eventual defeat of Ukraine with all the consequences of the first point.
If you are afraid of Ukraine's defeat, Russia's defeat, and the prolongation of the war, what else is left?
(I should note in parentheses that if all scenarios are bad for you, you have already lost, at least in your head. Instead, the winner is the one for whom all scenarios are good or at least acceptable. This is China today. But if all scenarios are bad for you from the beginning, then you had an inadequate picture of the world from the beginning).
So, what are Western elites left with?
First, they can only dream about how everything would be fine if Ukraine surrendered within a few days or weeks in the spring of 2022. Then there would be no problems, no war (in fact, the opposite), no need to take money from the country's budget, etc. But through its resilience, Ukraine has created a problem for all of them (in fact, it's the other way around).
If you are afraid of Ukraine's defeat, Russia's defeat, and the prolongation of the war, what else is left?
Secondly, we continue to live with myths that allow us to use the old, inadequate picture of the world. For example:
а) Putin will die (Putin will not die because a person who has several doubles controlled by people from his inner circle cannot die);
b) After Putin's death, Navalny will become president of Russia (not really, because the real power is in the hands of the FSB and other clans, and even if Navalny is released and appointed president, it will not change anything);
c) After Putin's death and Navalny's election and inauguration, he will democratize Russia in 1-2 years (not really, because democracy requires citizens and institutions, and we have neither).
Thirdly, in addition to Ukraine's defeat, Russia's defeat, and the prolongation of the war, there is a fourth option: freezing the war. However, negotiations and freezing the conflict require obtaining the consent of the Ukrainian and Russian sides. Neither side is willing to do so. Ukrainian society will not approve of such behavior by Ukrainian political leaders. Putin also does not want to negotiate because he believes that time is on his side – he just needs to wait for Ukraine to be exhausted.
Fourthly, finally, you can do nothing and hope that something will change the situation or lead to new information. For example, that Putin will die (see above). This is precisely what the Western elites are doing now, proclaiming, "We will be with Ukraine as long as it takes" – as long as it takes for what?
So, the lack of a vision of how the war will end makes ending the war difficult; I would even say impossible. (I hope no one has any illusions that even the advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the 1991 borders means the war's end.)
What to do?
There is only one way: Ukraine must show maximum subjectivity and initiative in ending the war. To realize, analyze, and offer our allies possible scenarios of the postwar world. Agree on a preferred scenario and formulate a request for resources and mechanisms necessary for its implementation. We must overcome our own inferiority complex, as well as our allies' colonial thinking and mental traps. We must attract Western intellectuals and public figures to our side. We must send a clear and distinct message to non-Western countries (which are clumsily called the "Global South"). We must form an anti-imperial bloc within Russia. Fill the global information space with viral memes. Gather an international coalition for sustainable peace, as we have gathered a coalition in defense of Ukraine. Otherwise, our marathon will turn into just running in circles.