Tomahawks for Ukraine wouldn’t escalate war, could weaken Russia, ISW says

The think tank noted that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and Kremlin propagandists have repeatedly portrayed potential Tomahawk deliveries as a major “escalation” in an effort to undermine Western support for Ukraine. The Kremlin has consistently issued veiled threats — including nuclear saber-rattling — and even floated economic incentives to dissuade U.S. aid, such as the proposed Trump–Putin tunnel project.

By contrast, ISW argued that American long-range Tomahawks could help Ukraine inflict serious damage on key Russian military assets located deep inside the aggressor state’s territory.

For example, the missiles could successfully strike the Shahed drone factory in Yelabuga in the Republic of Tatarstan or the Engels‑2 air base in Russia’s Saratov Oblast, from which strategic bombers launch missile attacks on Ukraine. Such strikes, the report said, could significantly weaken Russia’s military capability.

ISW explained that Tomahawks can carry a larger payload and travel faster than Ukraine’s long‑range drones, giving them a higher chance of penetrating Russian air defenses and causing greater damage to fortified targets.

Debate over Tomahawk supplies — what’s known

On Oct. 17, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House. During public remarks, Zelenskyy reiterated that Ukraine needs Tomahawk missiles and proposed an arms deal with the United States. Trump, in turn, said he wanted to end the war without transferring Tomahawks to Ukraine. He also said the U.S. needs those missiles itself.

Later, Zelenskyy told reporters that Washington and Kyiv would no longer publicly discuss long‑range weapons and that the United States does not want escalation.

Axios earlier reported that Trump denied Zelenskyy’s request for Tomahawks — at least for now — because he considers diplomacy his top priority. CNN likewise reported that Trump made it “directly and honestly” clear to Zelenskyy that Ukraine would not receive Tomahawks at this stage.