In March, the Treasury Department allowed sales of sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil that was already at sea, with deadlines of April 11 and April 19, respectively.
Nearly a month on, experts told Semafor there is little evidence those steps meaningfully lowered prices beyond briefly calming investors.
By expanding the pool of buyers, Moscow and Tehran were able to command higher prices; at times, Russia earned an extra $150 million a day. Much of Iran’s oil was already headed to China.
Several former sanctions officials said they expect the administration to extend the exception for Russian oil, which could open the door to extending the Iranian exception as well.
Both moves would underscore how sanctions have shifted in Trump’s second term—from a primary tool of economic pressure to an episodic way to influence markets.
The article also quoted Edward Fishman, author of Chokepoints and a former sanctions official at the State Department and Treasury under President Barack Obama.
“It’s hard for me to see a world where the Trump administration cracks down on Russian oil again, at least between now and the midterm elections,” he said.
Overnight into March 10, President Donald Trump said his administration would “lift certain oil-related sanctions to lower prices,” without specifying which sanctions.
On March 13, the United States issued a limited license allowing countries to purchase some Russian oil and oil products already at sea. The license, posted on the Treasury Department’s website, applied to cargoes loaded as of March 12 and permitted shipments through April 11.
On March 15, Trump said sanctions on Russian oil would be restored after the Middle East crisis ends.