Escalation threatens Ukraine peace opening as Trump remains focused on Iran

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have recently signaled that they want Washington back at the negotiating table.

Graham served as the White House’s top adviser on Russia under President George W. Bush.

Kyiv and Moscow “will not wait forever,” Graham warned. Although the Russian dictator continues to speak favorably about Trump, several senior officials and commentators have pointed to U.S. aid for Ukraine and questioned Trump’s ability to serve as an effective, reliable mediator. Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to work closely with European countries on negotiating tactics.

Some in Kyiv want Europe to take a more direct role, a move Graham argued would deepen the divide with Moscow and reduce the chances of peace.

He cited two compelling reasons for the United States to immediately rejoin the negotiations.

The conflict has entered a dangerous spiral of escalation, Graham wrote. Ukrainian forces are intensifying strikes inside Russia, including attacks on military facilities and energy infrastructure.

Russia, in turn, is rapidly expanding its attacks on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, exploiting Ukraine’s shortage of air defense systems. Destruction and civilian casualties are mounting.

Fears that the war could spread are also growing across Europe. Both sides urgently need to end the war, Graham argued.

“Each day the war continues, the future looks increasingly bleak. Yet if it ended today, each side could claim victory,” he wrote.

Intensive negotiations are now urgently needed to seize the opportunity and end the war, Graham argued. Only Washington has the contacts, political weight and influence required to do so.

The United States can negotiate with Moscow and Kyiv as well as key European capitals.

Graham urged Trump to send his envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, first to the Ukrainian capital and then to Moscow as soon as possible.

Those visits would not produce an immediate breakthrough, but they could lay the groundwork for an intensive period of shuttle diplomacy aimed at bridging the vast differences between the parties.

Success is not guaranteed, and the effort would not deliver the quick results Trump wants. But the opportunity is real and may prove fleeting, Graham warned.

Washington must act before escalation wipes out the diplomatic opportunities created by military exhaustion, he concluded.

Talks on ending Russia’s war against Ukraine — key details

Trilateral talks among Ukraine, the United States and Russia stalled in February 2026 after the war in Iran began. The Kremlin said on May 7 that it considered further talks in that format impractical until Ukraine withdrew its troops from the part of the Donbas under Kyiv’s control.

Zelenskyy published an open letter to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on June 4, calling on the two sides to end the war “between you and us.” He proposed an in-person meeting, a complete ceasefire and an “all-for-all” prisoner exchange. The Russian dictator responded that the letter contained “elements of rudeness” and refused to meet.

It later emerged that oligarch Roman Abramovich had traveled to Kyiv in May with the Russian dictator’s authorization. During their meeting, Zelenskyy reiterated that Ukraine would not agree to withdraw from the Donbas.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on July 31 that Washington would spend the next several weeks trying to determine whether talks between Kyiv and Moscow could be revived and bring the war closer to an end.