U.S. intelligence data guided Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries

FT data analysis revealed that Ukraine is striking Russian energy infrastructure at an unprecedented rate, triggering the country's most severe fuel crisis in decades.

This was made possible by Ukraine's expanded domestic UAV manufacturing capacity and the development of improved guidance systems. American intelligence assistance has also played a role, aiding Kyiv in charting the best paths for its drones and helping to skirt air defences, senior Ukrainian officials told FT.

“Ukraine has had a technological breakthrough, which allowed them to produce more long-range drones and increase overall mass production,” head of the Eurasia Programme at the German Council on Foreign Relations Stefan Meister said.

Official figures published by the Russian defense ministry show that nearly 64,000 drones were “intercepted” over Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories. Ukraine’s intensified attacks are putting Russia’s air defenses under unprecedented strain, making it harder for Moscow to defend its critical energy and military assets.

Ukrainian strikes have also destroyed the Kremlin’s carefully maintained illusion that “normal life” in Russia has carried on during the war, director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Ruslan Pukhov said.

Data published by Polish analytical group Rochan Consulting showed that the number of successful Ukrainian strikes against Russian refineries reached an all-time monthly record of 16 in May. Since the beginning of 2026, Russian refineries have been hit at least 194 times, an 11-fold increase from the same period in 2025.

Russia’s fuel crisis

Ukrainian forces have significantly intensified drone strikes on Russia in the spring of 2026, forcing Russian authorities to restrict fuel sales in more than 40 regions across the country, as well as in temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories. 

Fuel crisis pushed gasoline prices in 10 Russian regions and in occupied Crimea and Sevastopol to levels higher than in the United States.

Dictator Vladimir Putin acknowledged for the first time on June 28 that the country is facing fuel shortages following relentless Ukrainian drone strikes on domestic refineries.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on June 1 that Ukrainian attacks had hit 15 Russian oil refineries since the start of the year, knocking nearly 40% of Russia’s primary oil refining capacity offline as of May.

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry announced on July 1 that the Armed Forces had struck 11 Russian oil refineries.