There was a sharp decrease in the volume of new aid over the same period, totaling just EUR 2.11 billion – an 87% drop compared to 2022 and marking the lowest level since January 2022.
Ukraine now increasingly relies on a core group of donors such as the U.S., Germany, and the Nordic and Eastern European countries that continue to pledge and deliver both financial aid and important weaponry, such as F-16 fighter jets, the study shows.
Results from the latest Ukraine Support Tracker update, covering commitments up to Oct. 31, demonstrates that future aid predictions are difficult to estimate, due to the pending approval of the largest aid commitment by the European Union and the declining aid from the US.
Only 20 of 42 donor countries provided new aid packages in the past three months, the least active period since the start of the war, with minimal commitments from the EU and the U.S., Kiel analysts said.
Kiel Institute research center director Christoph Trebesch drew attention to the hesitant donor attitude in recent months, and expressed hope that the EU will eventually pass its long-announced EUR 50 billion support package, given the uncertainty about further U.S. aid.
"A further delay would clearly strengthen Putin's position," he said.
The primary group of active Ukrainian donors includes individual European countries and NATO countries like Canada and the United Kingdom, with Denmark, Germany, and Norway delivering significant military assistance in the past three months as part of their previously committed multi-year programs.
EU countries now surpass the US in terms of military aid, especially Germany and Nordic countries, contributing to a shift towards military aid among the top ten donor countries – accounting for 58% of total aid as of Oct. 31. The United States remains the largest military donor, but Germany is rapidly “catching up”, with total military commitments exceeding EUR 17 billion.
"We generally observe a further shift towards military aid, in particular in the bilateral aid patterns," Trebesch said.
Of the total EUR 25 billion in heavy weapon commitments (Jan. 2022–Oct. 2023), the U.S. accounts for 43% of the total value, while all EU countries and institutions together account for 47%, with the remainder coming from various other donors, in particular the United Kingdom and Canada.
New pledges from Germany and Nordic countries include the provision of new Patriot and IRIS-T air defense systems from Germany and 19 F-16 fighter jets from Denmark as part of a joint aviation coalition.