Even energetic U.S. diplomacy under President Donald Trump can only advance negotiations so far, Vance said, adding that a final agreement requires genuine willingness from both parties.
“Right now, for all of our work, and we're going to keep on working at it, the Russians and the Ukrainians are just not at the point where they can make a deal,” Vance said.
A peaceful resolution remains possible but will demand far more effort, he added.
Vance pointed to one key obstacle: differing battlefield perceptions, with Russians often overestimating their gains, which hinders compromise.
Still, he credited the Trump administration’s foreign policy with pushing talks further than previous governments.
“You know, I think that the thing that actually works in both cases is the Trump approach to diplomacy, which is energetic, that empowers his people on the ground, that actually encourages them to get a deal done and is willing to explore some unconventional means in order to get the deal done,” Vance said.
On pressuring Russia economically, Vance argued tariffs outperform sanctions as a negotiating tool, calling them effective while traditional sanctions often fall short and can harm the U.S. economy.
Vance said Trump has worked directly with major trading partners like India and China to curb Russia’s oil revenues, a critical lever for peace.
"Yes, it's frustrating sometimes," said Vance. "Yes, [Trump] gets impatient with everybody involved sometimes."
Despite everything, Trump has strong confidence in sealing a deal, he added.
“I think that he will. It's just a question of how long it's going to take,” said Vance.
On Oct. 16, Trump described a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin as “productive” and announced an in-person meeting with him in Budapest within two weeks.
Trump also said he had arranged a meeting next week between high-level U.S. and Russian advisers.
After the call, Trump said the United States also needs Tomahawk missiles and cannot “deplete for our country.” He also confirmed that he had discussed with Putin the possibility of providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles.
Zelenskyy is scheduled to visit Washington on Oct. 17 at Trump’s invitation. The leaders are expected to discuss ways to compel Putin to negotiate, including by supplying Kyiv with Tomahawk missiles. The Financial Times reported that Washington could provide Ukraine with 20 to 50 of the missiles.