As ever since the failed rush to capture Kyiv in early 2022, Moscow is focused on seizing Donetsk Oblast, with some experts saying the new offensive is already underway.
U.S. analysts suggest that although Russian dictator Vladimir Putin appears confident of achieving military victory, ongoing sanctions and heavy casualties are degrading Russia’s war machine. This summer could be Russia’s “last chance” at mounting a major offensive.
The current assault features the most intense air strikes on Ukrainian cities since the war began. In addition to a major push in Donetsk Oblast, where Russia currently controls roughly 70% of the territory, the Kremlin is trying to distract Ukrainian forces with smaller attacks along Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.
Russia’s objective is to pin down Ukrainian forces along the entire front, particularly around Sumy and Kharkiv, though priority targets remain Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast. Mykola Bielieskov, a senior researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, said Russia can attack Kostyantynivka from three directions.
While some analysts have predicted the fall of the two cities by December 2024, Ukraine still holds them. However, the newspaper noted that the Ukrainian army struggles with shortages of personnel and weapons, while Russia exceeds its mobilization targets. Ukrainian military officials say the Kremlin still lacks sufficient force for a large-scale assault on Kostyantynivka.
Russia needed 80,000 troops to take the small city of Avdiivka in February 2024. Currently, 125,000 Russian troops are deployed along the Sumy and Kharkiv borders—still not enough to launch assaults on regional capitals.
“I expect they will concentrate on Donetsk Oblast; anything else would only serve as a distraction and scatter Ukrainian resources,” Bielieskov said.
Analysts believe Moscow may use these forces to create a “buffer zone” and capture select settlements to pressure the larger cities—especially Sumy. Oleh Koval, head of Sumy regional administration, said Russian troops have already seized four border villages.
Ukraine continues to pursue a defensive strategy aimed at stalling the enemy and inflicting maximum losses. A stable flow of Western arms remains critical to its efforts, although future supplies—particularly from the United States—are now at risk.