According to Defense Express, F-16s currently make up the largest share of Western fighter aircraft in Ukraine’s inventory. After accounting for combat losses, the Ukrainian Air Force has up to 39 F-16s supplied by the Netherlands and Denmark. Norway has pledged an additional six aircraft, while Belgium has committed up to 30 more.
Reports recently emerged that Belgium plans to transfer all 53 of its F-16s to Ukraine by 2029, although it remains unclear how many of those aircraft will be operational. Defense Express also suggests that the six Norwegian aircraft could arrive before 2030. As a result, Ukraine could field between 75 and 98 F-16s by 2030, even without potential additional donors such as Portugal, which is seeking replacements for its own F-16 fleet, the analysts said.
France is the only country that has officially announced the transfer of Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine, pledging six aircraft. As of early 2026, three had been delivered, one of which was subsequently lost. According to Defense Express, Ukraine is therefore expected to receive a total of five operational Mirage 2000-5s.
France is also reportedly trying to persuade Greece to transfer 10 of its Mirage aircraft to Ukraine. In addition, unofficial reports have suggested that Ukraine could exchange interceptor drones for 12 Mirage 2000-5 jets from Qatar, which have been retired from service but are believed to remain in good condition.
Defense Express estimates that Ukraine could receive between five and 15 Mirage fighters, provided Greece agrees to the transfer. Under a less likely scenario, the Ukrainian Air Force could receive up to 41 aircraft, excluding Greek Mirage 2000 EGM/BGM jets, which would likely be used as spare-parts donors.
Sweden is expected to provide Ukraine with 16 Gripen C/D fighters, contingent on Stockholm signing a contract for the newer Gripen E variant. Delivery timelines have not yet been announced, but analysts believe the aircraft could arrive before 2030.
“Under a realistic scenario, Ukraine could have between 96 and 129 F-16, Mirage and Gripen fighter jets in service by the early 2030s,” Defense Express wrote.
The estimate does not account for potential combat losses or aircraft used solely for spare parts. Under what the outlet described as a “fantastical scenario,” Ukraine could receive as many as 155 fighters, again excluding donor aircraft and losses.
Ukraine’s plans to acquire Gripen and Rafale fighters
On May 28, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Sweden on an official visit and announced that Stockholm would provide Kyiv with 16 JAS 39 Gripen C/D fighter jets. The first deliveries are expected within the next 10 months.
Zelenskyy also said Ukraine plans to purchase “all 150 Gripen fighters” and hopes to finance the acquisition through a 90 billion euro loan facility.
According to the president, Sweden will provide not only the aircraft but also weapons packages, including Meteor air-to-air missiles capable of engaging targets at ranges exceeding 200 kilometers (124 miles).
Zelenskyy and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson launched a major defense agreement that, in its initial phase, would allow Ukraine to purchase up to 20 Gripen E/F fighters.
In October 2025, Ukraine signed a letter of intent with Sweden that could eventually lead to the purchase of between 100 and 150 Gripen E aircraft. Swedish defense company Saab said it was prepared to open a final assembly plant in Ukraine as part of the proposed deal.
In November 2025, Zelenskyy and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a declaration of intent on defense procurement cooperation at the Villacoublay Air Base near Paris. Zelenskyy announced what he described as a “historic order” for 100 Rafale fighter jets.
Ukraine’s Presidential Office later clarified that the agreement would allow Kyiv to purchase 100 Rafale F4 aircraft by 2035, along with eight SAMP/T air defense systems, air-to-air missiles and aerial bombs.