How much money Ukraine lacks for the coming years of war — estimates and sources of additional financing

In September 2025, Ukraine and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed on a revised assessment of Kyiv’s midterm financing needs. The IMF now estimates Ukraine’s uncovered requirement at roughly $65 billion over four years, significantly higher than earlier projections that focused on 2025–2026. The shortfall is unevenly distributed, with the sharpest gap in 2027.

According to the National Bank of Ukraine, external financing needs are projected at $53.7 billion in 2025, $34.9 billion in 2026, and $30 billion in 2027. Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko has warned that Ukraine still requires $8.7 billion by the end of 2025 to meet budget obligations, even after receiving more than $30 billion in foreign aid this year. He estimated an uncovered financing gap of €16 billion ($17 billion) in 2026, stressing that “the entire year will remain a period of active fighting.”

The government’s draft 2026 budget foresees record spending of 4.8 trillion hryvnias ($122 billion) and revenues of 2.8 trillion hryvnias ($71 billion), leaving a deficit of up to 18.4% of GDP. Of 2.54 trillion hryvnias ($65 billion) in planned borrowing, more than 80% is expected from external sources.

Sources of the gap

The deficit is driven by soaring defense spending, reduced international aid, difficulty securing new loans, and delays in promised EU and U.S. tranches. Analysts note the impact of waning U.S. willingness to provide large-scale support under President Donald Trump’s administration.

Alexander Parashchiy, head of research at Concorde Capital, noted that Ukraine spent about $130 billion annually on defense and other budget needs in 2023–2024. He projects military spending of $110–120 billion in 2026, plus $40 billion for non-defense costs. With internal resources expected to cover around $62 billion, Ukraine would need to secure $88 billion from external sources.

Options and risks

While the Finance Ministry could expand issuance of domestic bonds with National Bank support, analysts say the internal debt market—estimated at 200 billion hryvnias ($5 billion)—is insufficient to fill the gap. Monetary financing is not being considered.

Officials are instead pinning hopes on:

• Unlocking revenues or the principal from frozen Russian assets.
• A new IMF program, projected at around $8 billion.
• Long-term EU and G7 support packages

Bloomberg reported that the European Commission now intends to cover a significant portion of the shortfall using frozen Russian assets, not only the revenues they generate. Lawmaker Roksolana Pidlasa highlighted that the EU’s next seven-year budget, starting in 2028, already envisions €100 billion ($108 billion) for Ukraine.

Still, only one-third of Ukraine’s $65 billion financing need through 2029 is currently covered by confirmed sources. IMF talks with the Ukrainian government are set for November 2025.

“The key question is whether military aid will be sufficient,” Parashchiy said. “If not, Ukraine will have to request even greater financial support.”