Russian naval blockade poses critical threat to Ukraine, expert warns

“Officials and the Cabinet are avoiding the topic, but we are effectively in a critical situation. This was the primary reason for closing the Zaporizhstal steel plant, meaning Ukraine will shift from being a major metallurgical power to producing almost no metal,” Denysenko said. “Furthermore, farmers will face severe challenges in the next one to two weeks.”

He added that the Russian dictator tracks the data and understands the situation. Putin believes he has no reason to end the blockade, despite Russia losing massive resources from Ukraine's counter-blockade of the Sea of Azov and parts of the Black Sea.

“The likelihood of Putin agreeing to a maritime truce right now is low,” the analyst explained. “He believes blocking Ukrainian maritime trade damages Ukraine far more than any Black Sea blockade hurts Russia. I am highly skeptical that Putin will lift the naval blockade or that the Odesa maritime corridor will reopen.”

According to Denysenko, Putin believes Russia can redirect some of its cargo flows to the Baltic and Caspian Seas.

The Russian naval blockade

Ukrainian Agrarian Policy Minister Taras Vysotsky reported that Russian forces sharply escalated strikes on Ukraine’s port infrastructure and civilian shipping in July.

An attack on the Golden Leo killed 10 people, while strikes on the Gas Lisbon tanker and the Golden Rose bulk carrier prompted shipowners to suspend calls at Odesa ports on their own.

Russia launched 35 attacks on ships in ports, 22 on vessels at sea, and 67 on port infrastructure in July.

Russian attacks have continued throughout August, targeting infrastructure across Odesa Oblast. In addition to striking ports, Russian forces hit the regional railway network and damaged the Mayaki bridge on the M-15 highway, which links southern Ukraine with Moldova and Romania.