"We are counting on all nuclear power units operating at full capacity this winter, which would give us around 7.5 to 8 gigawatts," Omelchenko said. "In addition, we plan to repair 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of thermal generation and hydroelectric power plants, and bring online up to 500 megawatts of small-scale decentralized generation. I hope we can secure enough equipment for these repairs before and during the fall-winter season. If we achieve this goal, we’ll get through the cold season much more easily."
Omelchenko emphasized that Ukraine is also counting on negotiating an increased import quota with ENTSO-E, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, from 1.7 gigawatts to 2.2 gigawatts. "Plus, there’s the possibility of emergency assistance. Altogether, this could provide us with around 14 to 15 gigawatts for the winter. But this still won’t cover all our needs, and the deficit will persist," he added.
When asked about the potential shortfall and how it would impact planned outages for residential consumers, Omelchenko predicted: "The deficit this winter will average around 2 gigawatts. At certain times, particularly in the evenings and during severe cold spells—below 10 degrees Celsius—the demand could reach about 18 gigawatts. That means we could face a shortfall of up to 4 gigawatts during those periods, specifically on cold days and during peak electricity consumption hours. That’s my base forecast. However, this doesn’t account for any new Russian attacks or the potential destruction of additional power plants."
As a result, planned power outages will be unavoidable. "On average, I think we’ll see one or two rounds of outages," he explained. "One round equals about four hours, two rounds would be eight hours. But some days there will be fewer outages, and on others, more. For example, on weekends, if it’s not too cold—say around 0 to -3 degrees Celsius—there might not be any outages at all. But on colder days and during peak hours, I believe we’ll see at least three rounds of outages."
Earlier, on June 11, 2024, during a speech at the opening ceremony of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that with the help of Ukraine’s partners, the country aims to build up to 1 gigawatt of gas-fired generation capacity in 2024 and an additional 4 gigawatts in the coming years.
Zelenskyy also mentioned that 9 gigawatts of Ukraine's power capacity has already been destroyed by Russian missile and drone strikes, noting that last winter, peak energy consumption in Ukraine reached 18 gigawatts.
Former Energy Minister adviser and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Lana Zerkal expressed skepticism about President Zelensky's statement, saying that building 1 gigawatt of gas-fired generation by the end of 2024 is not feasible.
However, Volodymyr Popereshnyuk, co-founder of the NOVA (Nova Poshta) group of companies, believes that constructing 1 gigawatt of generation capacity in a year is entirely possible, though it would require $500 million in investments.
During his speech at the international conference on Ukraine’s recovery in Berlin, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, Chairman of the Board of Ukrenergo, noted that Ukraine’s power system needs 5 to 6 gigawatts of generation capacity from various sources. According to Kudrytskyi, Ukraine’s power grid loses 1 to 2 generation units after each attack.
Ukrainian Energy Minister German Halushchenko, speaking at the same conference, emphasized that the best projects for Ukraine are new generation facilities that can add gigawatts to the grid as soon as possible.