Winter on the front line: What Ukrainian forces are 65% likely to achieve by spring, according to NV

Ukrainian and Russian forces will most likely continue fighting over individual villages and positions in eastern and southern Ukraine until spring 2027, without major breakthroughs. Ukrainian troops are expected to hold back Russian attacks, with no significant changes to the front line.

This is the most realistic scenario for the front during the fall and winter, according to Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political analyst with the Information Resistance group.

NV and military analysts assessed the probability of this scenario at 65%.

Russia’s offensive in Donetsk Oblast slowed in the fall. Near Lyman, Ukraine’s Third Army Corps defeated the northern pincer of a Russian force that had sought to cut off the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk metropolitan area from Kharkiv Oblast.

As a result, Ukrainian and Russian forces are expected to enter winter in roughly their current positions.

“There are areas where we will continue counterattacks. Likewise, the Russians will have some areas where they can continue advancing, but not on a broad or large scale,” Kovalenko said.

According to Kovalenko, Russia’s ability to intensify its offensive depends on whether it declares general mobilization. However, as of early October, Russian President Vladimir Putin had not signed such a decree.

Under the most likely scenario, mobilization could increase the number of Russian troops on the battlefield but would not give Moscow a decisive advantage. Ukrainian forces would continue inflicting casualties on Russian personnel, the analyst said.

However, Russia’s manpower advantage would also limit Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian commanders would be able to maintain pressure and replenish their units, while Ukrainian forces would have to devote resources to holding back the enemy, Kovalenko explained.

“It will be strictly at the tactical level,” he said, assessing the potential gains Ukrainian forces could make.

Russia’s offensive toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk metropolitan area continues despite Ukrainian successes near Lyman. Russian forces are pressing from the east and south and making advances in some areas, military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets warned in an analysis posted on Facebook.

“Yes, this is happening quite slowly and at the cost of heavy losses, but the enemy is still continuing to creep forward,” he said.

Under these conditions, Ukraine will have to preserve the gains from its counterattacks while simultaneously stopping Russian advances elsewhere.

Kovalenko believes Moscow is unlikely to achieve even in 2027 the main objectives it set for its forces in 2026.