Expert says Ukraine must reduce dependence on large heat and power plants

Speaking on Radio NV, Kudrytskyi warned that centralized heating infrastructure — particularly large combined heat and power plants (CHPs) — remains highly vulnerable to missile and drone attacks.

“In large cities, we need to think about decentralizing heat supply,” Kudrytskyi said. “This winter showed a major problem in Kyiv. Three combined heat and power plants provide about 60–70% of the city’s heating, and those facilities are constantly targeted by ballistic missiles, Shahed drones, and cruise missiles.”

He said protecting such facilities completely with existing air defense systems is impossible, something that has become clear during the four years of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Kudrytskyi warned that Kyiv residents — particularly those on the city’s left bank — face uncertainty about future winters because Russian forces can continue targeting major heating plants such as CHP-6 and the Darnytska Thermal Power Plant.

“The decentralization of heat supply is not only a task for city authorities but also for the national government,” he said. “Kyiv is not the only city dependent on large power plants. Kharkiv, Dnipro, and others rely on centralized heating systems. We need solutions to ensure millions of people are not left without heat if Russia again focuses its strikes on major energy facilities.”

He said answering whether engineering solutions exist to mitigate damage to large power plants requires detailed technical work, including calculations and the involvement of design and engineering organizations.

Authorities must develop a plan to disperse electricity and heat generation capacity across multiple smaller facilities, Kudrytskyi said.

“If we do nothing and simply repeat that replacing the Darnytska CHP is impossible, then nothing will change,” he said. “The work hasn’t even started — neither at the national government level nor at the city level.”

At the same time, Kudrytskyi noted that much of Kyiv’s heating supply already relies on around 100 smaller boiler houses rather than only three large plants, meaning elements of decentralization are already partially in place.

However, without coordinated planning between national and local authorities, he warned the same heating disruptions could continue for many winters to come.

Kudrytskyi added that a concept for decentralizing electricity and heat generation has existed since at least early 2023, but no concrete technical solutions have yet been developed for large cities.

He said questions about the lack of progress should primarily be directed at central authorities.

Russian strikes continue to highlight the vulnerability of Ukraine’s centralized energy infrastructure. A Russian attack overnight on March 7 left more than 1,900 buildings in Kyiv without heating.

Earlier, on Feb. 16, former Naftogaz CEO Andriy Kobolyev also called for Ukraine to move away from large centralized energy facilities toward smaller, distributed power generation systems.

Kobolyev said the concept of autonomous heating systems had been discussed for about two decades but had not been widely implemented in major cities due to previously stable conditions.

However, some western Ukrainian cities have already moved away from centralized heating. Uzhhorod, for example, abandoned large CHP plants several years ago and now relies on smaller local heating systems or individual apartment-level heating.

Kobolyev estimated that converting roughly 5,000 older Soviet-era apartment buildings in Kyiv to autonomous heating systems could cost around €1.5 billion ($1.6 billion).