Ukraine outlines dual economic scenarios for 2026–2028 in new forecast

The government resolution, No. 946 dated Aug. 6, includes two scenarios. The more optimistic one projects 4.5% real GDP growth in 2026 with 8.6% inflation. The more conservative scenario forecasts 2.4% growth with 9.9% inflation.

Under the optimistic scenario, GDP would accelerate to 5% growth in 2027 and 5.7% in 2028, while inflation would gradually decline to 7.1% and 5.6%, respectively.

The conservative forecast expects GDP growth of 4.7% in 2027 and 4.5% in 2028, with inflation dropping to 9.7% and 7.5%.

The first scenario assumes 13 million economically active people aged 15–70 in 2026, increasing to 13.2 million by 2028. The second scenario places those figures at 12.8 million and 13 million, respectively.

Unemployment under the first scenario is projected to rise from 12.9% in 2026 to 13.3% in 2027, then fall slightly to 12.8% in 2028. The second scenario forecasts a steady rise from 12.6% in 2026 to 13.1% in 2028.

Inflation-adjusted average monthly wages would grow by 6.5% to 8.9% annually in the first scenario, and by 4.6% to 5.1% under the second.

In terms of trade, the optimistic forecast envisions export growth of 14.3% in 2026 and a more modest import increase of 2.7%. The conservative scenario anticipates export growth of 5.9% with imports rising 7.9%. As a result, the trade deficit would total $34.71 billion in the first scenario and $44.46 billion in the second.

As previously reported, investment firm Dragon Capital is also maintaining dual forecasts for 2025 due to uncertainty surrounding the potential for a comprehensive ceasefire, despite U.S. efforts.

Meanwhile, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) recently downgraded its 2025 growth outlook for Ukraine.