They say that Ukraine has received a yellow card from lawmakers in the United States. It's strange. In football, a yellow card is given when you have broken the rules and received a penalty. It seems that the vote in Congress is connected to some actions by Ukraine. For example, with corruption. No one will argue with the existence of it, of course. Or even with its growth during the war.
But...
Even if the level of corruption in Ukraine were at the level of Finland (and it is challenging to find it there), this would not change anything in the behavior of Trumpists. They would still choose Ukraine as a tool to blackmail Biden.
Why? Two reasons. They know that supporting Ukraine is vital to official Washington. And they are isolationists. This means that everything that happens outside the United States is secondary to them. For us, voting to support Ukraine is a significant event. For Trump, it is something intermediate and secondary. For the United States, this is still not the No. 1 issue. All countries in the world are focused on themselves.
So, no matter what we did, it would have stayed the same. We have become hostages of the US election process. This weekend's statements by many American politicians about their support for Ukraine confirm the unchanged attitude towards Ukraine.
Money from the United States is not critical for this year's budget
Does this mean that all is lost? Absolutely not. We are now in the middle of the process. Any conclusions can be drawn at the end. If Congress failed to vote for aid to Ukraine, the level of excitement would be high. But so far, we have only a technical stop. At the same time, both Ukraine and Washington were prepared for it. Ukraine now has a margin of financial strength, and the money from the US is not critical for this year's budget. The US used creative accounting, reassessed the support already provided (a few months ago), and managed to increase its limit.
In addition, we have the IMF program for financial support. Under this program, the G7 countries have officially guaranteed their financial support to the Fund for four years. This includes the United States. This is the primary value of the program with the IMF this time. It would be a big mistake to waste or fail the terms of it.
A separate issue is the cry of certain people that "it's all because we didn't use the lend-lease." There is a strange story with this lend-lease. A cargo cult has been created around it, probably related to the memories of the Second World War. However, lend-lease has always been a plan B. It was supposed to kick in if plan A stopped working. Plan A was free support from Washington, which operated until the last moment. It was impossible to increase support through a land package. We could receive a certain amount of weapons either free of charge or under a lend-lease, on credit. Of course, we chose free of charge. Why did you need a plan B? Well, at least because a year ago, there were midterm elections in the United States, in which expectations of the Trumpists were higher, and the mess they are making now could have started much earlier. So, Plan A and Plan B were both designed for a particular time, and that time has passed. That is why the use of a lend-lease is simply impossible now.
Is it nice that we have become hostages of the political process in the United States? Of course not. But it is a fact. What makes us strong in the confrontation with Russia (the support of our allies) also makes us weak, because we depend on our allies' support. But this weakness is only one of the drawbacks of our strength. In terms of support, we just have to go through the whole political process, which will be accompanied by many statements, some of which we will not like.
Is there a Trump risk for us? Of course there is. But this is a risk not only for us, but for the entire democratic world. In particular, for the United States itself.
What awaits us in the near future in this area? There is a lot of noise and unpleasant statements, such as Musk's attack on Zelensky, which is a disgusting manifestation of the same politics and is a continuation of Musk's actions when, for example, he patrols the border in a cowboy hat and catches illegal migrants. This is the domestic kitchen of the United States, and it always smelled terrible during the election. Now, we can smell it ourselves.
So far, both the support of societies and the support of governments of all G7 countries remain stable and pro-Ukrainian. Yes, the emotions of the first months of the war are gone. But keeping them at a high level for so long is impossible. But there is already institutionalized support. It is based, among other things, on the national interests of these countries. Therefore, it is too early to sprinkle ashes on our heads and whine that we are being abandoned. No one has abandoned us yet. Before Trump's potential victory, such risks are not visible.
Remember: Trump chose the topic of Ukraine to blackmail Biden only because he knows how important it is for the White House. For the interests of the United States.