Experts predict breakthrough for Ukrainian military with new ballistic missile

Military experts discussed several aspects of the functionality and features of this mysterious ballistic missile, following President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s announcement, which lacked specific details.

Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the head of the Presidential Office, claimed on Aug. 28 that the missile’s range could reach up to 600–700 kilometers. This would allow Ukraine to strike targets in Moscow, the Engels strategic aviation airbase near Saratov, the Russian Black Sea Fleet base in Novorossiysk, Sochi, and other locations. However, specialists from Defense Express speculated that Podolyak might have misspoken and was referring not to a ballistic missile but to the Palianytsia missile-drone, which has a declared range of 600–700 kilometers.

Is it the Hrim-2 missile or “artillery” ballistic missile? What could this missile be?

In his analysis, Joseph Trevithick from The War Zone lists several possibilities for what Ukraine's new ballistic missile could be.

An upgraded Hrim-2 tactical ballistic missile system: This long-standing project by Ukraine's Pivdenne Design Bureau began over a decade ago. In 2018, Ukraine tested the rocket engine for the Hrim-2 and showcased the missile system during a military parade in Kyiv. The 10-wheel transport-launcher was equipped to carry two missiles marked for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Hrim-2 resembles Russia’s Iskander-M missile, and The War Zone suggests its range could be between 280 km to 500 km. One of the goals for developing this system was to replace Ukraine’s outdated Tochka and Tochka-U ballistic missile systems from the Soviet era, with ranges of 70 km and 120 km, respectively.

A high-caliber guided artillery shell: Zelenskyy’s mention of a missile could imply something different than the Hrim-2 — possibly a non-traditional ballistic missile. The article notes that the line between high-caliber guided artillery shells and short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) is becoming increasingly blurred. SRBMs are typically defined as missiles with a maximum range of up to 1,000 kilometers. However, the U.S. military has introduced the term "close-range ballistic missiles" (CRBMs) for munitions with ranges up to 300 kilometers. The existing Ukrainian Vilkha-M with a 300mm caliber could also fall under this “ballistic missile” category.

The long-range missile mentioned by Oleksii Reznikov: Last year, former Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov mentioned that Ukraine was developing a new long-range missile with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers, without providing further details. This new missile could potentially be the one in question.

Why a domestic ballistic missile is crucial for Ukraine

The War Zone expert also highlights several reasons why developing a domestic ballistic missile could be a crucial success for Ukraine’s arsenal and capabilities:

• Enhanced strike capability: Such a weapon would provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a valuable new option for long-range strikes, unlike anything currently in Ukraine's arsenal.
• Freedom from foreign restrictions: The ability to deploy domestically produced ballistic missiles would not be subject to any foreign restrictions on use, unlike many long-range weapons supplied to Ukraine by the United States and other Western allies.
• Ground-based long-range strike capability: The ability to conduct long-range strikes with ground-based weapons, such as this ballistic missile, is particularly important for Ukraine, especially given the significant threat posed by Russian air defenses to Ukrainian aircraft conducting strikes deep behind enemy lines.
• Increased power and range: Possessing new ballistic missiles with greater power and range than the Tochka and Tochka-U would be a "serious development" in Ukraine's capabilities. Ballistic missiles generally achieve very high speeds and complex trajectories in their terminal phase, presenting a unique challenge for enemy air and missile defenses compared to other types of missiles. Thus, ballistic missiles are considerably more dangerous to the enemy than subsonic cruise missiles or kamikaze drones. Due to their speed, ballistic missiles with unitary high-explosive warheads can also penetrate fortified targets more deeply or deliver more powerful strikes on structures like bridges.
• Combined arms and drone integration: The Ukrainian Armed Forces could also use ballistic missiles in conjunction with other types of missiles and drones for larger-scale, combined attacks, creating even more complex strike scenarios for the Russians. This is a strategy regularly employed by Russian forces during massive attacks on Ukraine.