The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) responded in their report to a column by Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk, First Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, published on July 9 in NV, titled "What Factors Will Allow Ukraine to Conduct a Counteroffensive."
Havryliuk suggested that strong Western assistance is crucial to Ukraine's ability to counter the Russians and seize the initiative on the battlefield. He also questioned the notion that Russian troops could indefinitely sustain a slow, gradual advance, which underpins Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's "theory of victory" and his war of attrition against Ukraine.
Analyzing Havryliuk's thesis, ISW analysts shared their observations that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are already attempting to challenge the initiative on the battlefield through limited and localized counterattacks at the tactical level. This indicates that the current positional warfare along the entire front line is not infinitely stable, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Its experts believe that Western aid arriving on the battlefield has allowed Ukrainian forces to stabilize critical areas of the front.
Starting in mid-May 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched "tactically important and successful local counterattacks" in the north of Kharkiv Oblast and towards Kreminna (near the border of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts).
So far, Ukrainian forces have not conducted counterattacks on the scale necessary to seize the initiative on the battlefield, ISW states. However, even these tactical counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces increase the costs that Russian forces factor into their plans for a slow, creeping advance and offensive in Ukraine.
Explaining the effect of these counterattacks, ISW notes that in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, the Ukrainian Armed Forces forced Russian troops to relocate some units far from where their main body should have been. For instance, ISW observed that Russia moved elements of the 810th Marine Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) and a battalion tactical group of the 9th Separate Mechanized Brigade (1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR) to the north of Kharkiv Oblast in mid-June. Meanwhile, other units of the 810th Marine Brigade and the 9th Separate Mechanized Brigade remained near Krynky, Kherson Oblast, and Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast, respectively.
ISW has also concluded that the Russian military command has separated and deployed some Russian paratrooper units to the hottest areas of the front. For example, units of the 137th Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division are fighting in Kherson Oblast, while other elements are fighting near Siversk in Donetsk Oblast.
The scattered and disjointed deployment of elements of one larger military formation indicates that Russian forces are beginning to feel the pressure of Ukrainian counterattacks, emphasizing that the front line is not as static as Putin makes it out to be, ISW concludes. However, Ukraine's ability to launch more powerful and organized counterattacks continues to depend on continued military support from the West.