Ukrainian intervention in Belarus remains unlikely – expert opinion

“I am very skeptical about Tsikhanouskaya's activities,” said Zhyrokhov.

“As far as I've seen, she hasn't taken any practical steps to bring her claims to life over the past years. It could be part of an escalating strategy around the Belarus situation. But in reality, I don't think it will ever happen.”

In a June 19 interview, Tsikhanouskaya suggested that she might ask Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to “aid in liberating Belarus.” She emphasized that the liberation of Belarus would only be possible with substantial support from within the country, including from the Belarusian army. She noted that the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, a group of Belarusian opposition volunteers fighting against Russia as part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, alone would not suffice for the task.

In August 2022, Tsikhanouskaya announced the creation of a provisional Blarusian government. She proposed that Ukraine establish diplomatic ties with this cabinet, insisting that Ukrainians and Belarusians are not enemies.

Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the Ukrainian parliamentary Foreign Policy Committee, stated that Kyiv will not recognize Tsikhanouskaya's provisional cabinet due to her ambiguous political stance.

“Tsikhanouskaya's stance on Russia and Putin is unclear,” said Merezhko.

“She seems hesitant to overtly label Russia as a terrorist state, an aggressor, and an enemy of the Belarusian people. Additionally, there are some questionable individuals in her circle. She also made statements related to Ukraine that caused confusion for us.”