Ukrainian drone strikes curb Russia’s Kalibr missile effectiveness — ISW

ISW said Ukraine’s naval drones continue to threaten Russian vessels even after the Black Sea Fleet relocated from occupied Sevastopol to Novorossiysk in Krasnodar Krai. Persistent Ukrainian strikes have kept Russian missile-carrying ships in port for the past three months, forcing Kalibr launches from areas near naval bases and potentially helping Ukraine achieve a near-100% interception rate.

A day earlier, Ukraine’s defense forces struck the Russian support vessel Nefrit with naval drones at the port of Sochi, about 820 kilometers from the Ukrainian-controlled Black Sea coast. ISW wrote that the attack demonstrates Ukraine’s ability to carry out precision strikes on Russian ports along the entire Black Sea coast.

Persistent Ukrainian strikes have kept Russia’s missile-carrying ships in port for the past three months, with Kalibr missiles instead launched from areas near Russian naval bases, the Ukrainian Navy reported. ISW assessed that this may have enabled Ukraine to achieve a near-100% interception rate for Kalibr missiles, which Russia has been forced to launch from greater distances.

“Ukrainian strikes are effectively denying the Black Sea Fleet the ability to operate freely in the region, which in turn reduces the effectiveness of sea-launched cruise missiles that traditionally benefit from a wider geographic launch area,” ISW assessed.

Ukrainian technological innovations, including the integration of FPV drones into naval drone systems, allow Ukraine’s defense forces to carry out precision strikes on Russian Black Sea Fleet ships, air defense positions and port infrastructure, ISW concluded.

On Sept. 3, Ukraine’s defense forces struck the Russian port of Sochi, causing a fire. The Ukrainian Navy later reported that the Nefrit had been hit. The vessel supported oil and gas operations, serviced offshore facilities, transported cargo and personnel, and carried out underwater technical work.

On Sept. 4, new explosions were reported in Sochi, along with an attack on a Russian air defense position and an oil depot.