Trade wars slash global GDP forecast to 2.4%, UN says

Nation

16 May 2025, 12:05 PM

The United Nations projects global GDP growth at 2.4% for 2025, down 0.5% from last year, due to trade tensions and financial instability, Shantanu Mukherjee, director of the UN’s economic policy and analysis division, said on May 15.

Mukherjee presented the updated “World Economic Situation and Prospects” report, which states that escalating trade disputes, particularly new U.S. tariffs, are driving up prices and inflation risks, especially for export-dependent economies. 

Rising public debt and volatile financial markets are limiting governments’ ability to manage economic challenges. 

The U.S. growth forecast dropped from 2.7% to 1.8%, and China’s from 4.6% to 4%, per the UN. 

Russia’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.5%, driven by labor shortages, tight monetary policy, and sanctions. 

Economies in the Commonwealth of Independent States depend on factors like Russia’s war against Ukraine, sanctions, energy prices, and China’s economic conditions.

Ukraine’s economy hinges on security, the Black Sea corridor’s functionality, and international aid, with post-war recovery costs estimated at $524 billion, aligning with the World Bank’s February 2025 figure, according to the report. 

As reported by the EBRD in January, the World Bank downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2025 to 2% from 6.5% in its June 2024 report, but improved it for 2026 to 7% from 5.1%.

Ukraine’s central bank also changed its forecasts, lowering its real GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 4.3% to 3.6% in late January, while the state budget for 2025 is based on a 2.7% GDP growth forecast.

In February, the IMF downgraded its GDP forecast for Ukraine this year from 4.7% to 3.5%. Then, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also revised its 2025 economic growth forecast for Ukraine, lowering it by 0.5 percentage points from its previous forecast to 2-3%, and the World Bank - from 6.5% to 2%.

The European Bank for Development and Reconstruction revised its forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth in 2025 to 3.3% from 3.5% it had expected in February and kept its forecast for 2026 at 5.0%, assuming an end to Russia's war against Ukraine.

As of May 15, 2025, the eurozone's GDP fell short of the forecast.

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